ICE Hockey League

Black Wings Linz vs TWK Innsbruck prediction

Black Wings Linz10–3–1 · Home TWK Innsbruck6–8–0 · Away06:45 PMOct 28

69%win chance incl. overtime31%

Our pick

69%BLA69%BLA

Black Wings Linz to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.44 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Black Wings Linz 69% favourites at home against TWK Innsbruck, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

BLABlack Wings Linz in 60'

60%

Tied → OTTied → OT

18%

TWKTWK Innsbruck in 60'

23%

Game flow

BLA 3.5 · TWK 2.3 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.2–0.9

P2 · 1.3–0.6

P3 · 0.9–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Black Wings Linz69%1.44
Regulation result (60 minutes)Black Wings Linz60%1.68
Puck lineTWK Innsbruck +1.557%1.76
Total goalsOver 5.552%1.91
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Black Wings Linz

69%fair 1.44

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Black Wings Linz

60%fair 1.68

Puck line

TWK Innsbruck +1.5

57%fair 1.76

Total goals

Over 5.5

52%fair 1.91

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

B. ShawBLA · 10 G in 12 GP · 12 GP10539%2.57
G. KnottBLA · 7 G in 12 GP · 12 GP7631%3.25
B. LeblerBLA · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6629%3.44
S. OwreTWK · 7 G in 14 GP · 14 GP7527%3.67
O. MaierBLA · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3521%4.83
S. BenkerTWK · 5 G in 14 GP · 14 GP5420%5.01
T. BlissBLA · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4319%5.16
M. WittingTWK · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4219%5.40
C. MayerTWK · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3416%6.35
B. DavisTWK · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3116%6.37

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Black Wings Linz vs TWK Innsbruck?

Our model makes Black Wings Linz 69% favourites at home against TWK Innsbruck, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Black Wings Linz have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.8 and allowing 1.8 goals a game over that stretch. TWK Innsbruck have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 3.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Black Wings Linz sit 2nd, while TWK Innsbruck sit 13th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Black Wings Linz rate +0.50 and TWK Innsbruck −0.45 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.95 goals to Black Wings Linz. Home ice is worth about 0.27 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Black Wings Linz 60% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 18%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Black Wings Linz −1.5 on the puck line (43%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 52% (6 projected).

Black Wings Linz to win, overtime and shootout included (69%). Projected score: 3–2.