Liiga

Pelicans vs SaiPa prediction

Pelicans6–6–1 · Home SaiPa10–3–1 · Away06:30 PMOct 28

49%win chance incl. overtime51%

Our pick

51%SAI51%SAI

SaiPa to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.96 · projected 2–3

The numbers side with SaiPa (51%) on the road against Pelicans, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

PELPelicans in 60'

38%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

SAISaiPa in 60'

40%

Game flow

PEL 2.2 · SAI 2.3 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.9

P2 · 0.6–0.9

P3 · 0.8–0.5

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)SaiPa51%1.96
Regulation result (60 minutes)SaiPa40%2.51
Puck linePelicans +1.577%1.30
Total goalsOver 4.555%1.82
Both teams to scoreYes81%1.24

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

SaiPa

51%fair 1.96

Regulation result (60 minutes)

SaiPa

40%fair 2.51

Puck line

Pelicans +1.5

77%fair 1.30

Total goals

Over 4.5

55%fair 1.82

Both teams to score

Yes

81%fair 1.24

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

A. DudasPEL · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5623%4.35
P. SiikanenSAI · 7 G in 15 GP · 15 GP7121%4.77
G. FortierPEL · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3420%5.12
P. FridrichSAI · 5 G in 15 GP · 15 GP5418%5.49
A. IntonenSAI · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4416%6.12
A. KettunenPEL · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3315%6.52
P. PalmuSAI · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4114%6.97
O. MyklukhaPEL · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3214%7.20
R. KarvinenPEL · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3114%7.22
E. EmanuelssonSAI · 3 G in 14 GP · 14 GP3514%7.22

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Pelicans vs SaiPa?

The numbers side with SaiPa (51%) on the road against Pelicans, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Pelicans have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch. SaiPa have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 1.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Pelicans sit 12th, while SaiPa sit 5th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Pelicans rate −0.04 and SaiPa +0.41 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.45 goals to SaiPa. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives SaiPa 40% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 22%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: SaiPa −1.5 on the puck line (23%) and 4.5 total goals, with the over at 55% (4.8 projected).

SaiPa to win, overtime and shootout included (51%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.