Liiga

TPS vs Lukko prediction

TPS9–5–1 · Home Lukko10–4–1 · Away05:30 PMOct 24

56%win chance incl. overtime44%

Our pick

56%TPS56%TPS

TPS to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.79 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with TPS (56%) at home against Lukko, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

TPSTPS in 60'

43%

Tied → OTTied → OT

24%

LUKLukko in 60'

33%

Game flow

TPS 2.6 · LUK 2.3 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–0.6

P2 · 0.9–0.9

P3 · 1.1–0.7

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)TPS56%1.79
Regulation result (60 minutes)TPS43%2.32
Puck lineLukko +1.571%1.41
Total goalsUnder 5.562%1.61
Both teams to scoreYes82%1.21

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

TPS

56%fair 1.79

Regulation result (60 minutes)

TPS

43%fair 2.32

Puck line

Lukko +1.5

71%fair 1.41

Total goals

Under 5.5

62%fair 1.61

Both teams to score

Yes

82%fair 1.21

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

L. BryggmanTPS · 8 G in 16 GP · 16 GP8526%3.84
F. RobertLUK · 7 G in 15 GP · 15 GP7624%4.10
L. WernblomTPS · 7 G in 16 GP · 16 GP7324%4.20
J. VirtanenTPS · 5 G in 16 GP · 16 GP5421%4.81
A. SaarelaLUK · 6 G in 15 GP · 15 GP6721%4.84
A. BeaucageLUK · 6 G in 16 GP · 16 GP6320%5.06
L. HaudumTPS · 5 G in 16 GP · 16 GP5219%5.35
O. PaajanenTPS · 4 G in 16 GP · 16 GP4316%6.21
T. HaapanenLUK · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4215%6.88
H. LiedesLUK · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4214%7.19

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (1)

A. Saarela · kallerna, CC BY-SA 4.0

Who will win TPS vs Lukko?

The numbers side with TPS (56%) at home against Lukko, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

TPS have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch. Lukko have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 1.6 goals a game over that stretch.

TPS sit 6th, while Lukko sit 2nd.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, TPS rate +0.20 and Lukko +0.30 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.10 goals to Lukko. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives TPS 43% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 24%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 1 time recently (TPS 0, Lukko 1); the latest finished Lukko 4–1 TPS on 2026-10-23.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices TPS at 56% on the moneyline across 9 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, TPS −1.5 on the puck line comes in 29% of the time on our numbers, and the under 5.5 goals lands 62% against a projected 5 goals.

TPS to win, overtime and shootout included (56%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.