Latvian Hockey League

Punks Vilnius vs Riga Prizma prediction

Punks Vilnius2–6–1 · Home Riga Prizma2–8–0 · Away04:30 PMOct 24

46%win chance incl. overtime54%

Our pick

54%RIG54%RIG

Riga Prizma to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.84 · projected 3–4

Riga Prizma are the pick to win at Punks Vilnius with a 54% probability, and the projected score is 4–3.

After 60 minutes

PUNPunks Vilnius in 60'

38%

Tied → OTTied → OT

17%

RIGRiga Prizma in 60'

46%

Game flow

PUN 3.5 · RIG 3.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–1.0

P2 · 1.7–1.7

P3 · 1.2–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Riga Prizma54%1.84
Regulation result (60 minutes)Riga Prizma46%2.19
Puck linePunks Vilnius +1.568%1.46
Total goalsUnder 7.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes95%1.05

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Riga Prizma

54%fair 1.84

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Riga Prizma

46%fair 2.19

Puck line

Punks Vilnius +1.5

68%fair 1.46

Total goals

Under 7.5

55%fair 1.81

Both teams to score

Yes

95%fair 1.05

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

K. RiekstinsRIG · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6438%2.62
R. JekimovsRIG · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5332%3.10
O. KarvinenPUN · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4231%3.21
E. EzitisRIG · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4228%3.52
E. LocmelisRIG · 2 G in 5 GP · 5 GP2427%3.68
A. RedkoPUN · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3227%3.71
P. VerenisPUN · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2224%4.12
H. MarcinkeviciusPUN · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2123%4.32
I. CetvertakPUN · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2123%4.38
R. VitolsRIG · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2321%4.71

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Punks Vilnius vs Riga Prizma?

Riga Prizma are the pick to win at Punks Vilnius with a 54% probability, and the projected score is 4–3.

The model gives Riga Prizma a 54% chance to take this one on the road, which is barely more than a coin flip. The projected score of 4–3 reflects how little separates these two teams. Riga Prizma's edge comes from rating −0.52 goals per game against an average team once opponents are accounted for, compared with −1.08 for Punks Vilnius. That 0.56-goal gap is partly trimmed by home ice, worth about 0.27 goals a game in this league, but it does not disappear.

Recent form is poor on both sides and does not make the case for either team cleanly. Punks Vilnius have won 1 of their last 5 while scoring 1.0 and allowing 7.4 goals a game, so their problem is at both ends. Riga Prizma have won 0 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 6.2 per game, which is a slightly better scoring rate but still a leaky defensive record. The table has Punks Vilnius 7th and Riga Prizma 8th, so the standings offer only a thin separation as well.

The head-to-head sample is a single recent meeting, and it went Punks Vilnius' way: the latest finished Riga Prizma 2–4 Punks Vilnius on 2026-09-19. That result is the clearest argument the home side has, though one game does not outweigh the ratings gap. In regulation the model gives Riga Prizma 46% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 17%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout. That structure is why the full-game win probability for Riga Prizma sits at 54% rather than at the regulation figure.

The market side of this game is thin, and the numbers say as much. With the ratings edge small, home ice factored in and the head-to-head going against them, Riga Prizma are favoured but not comfortably so. The predictions point to a tight, high-event game rather than a clear winner, so the lean deserves care.

The projected score of 4–3 is a one-goal margin, which sits right against the Riga Prizma −1.5 puck line and its 32% probability, so the model expects the cover to fail more often than not. On the 7.5 total goals line, the under carries 55% with 7.5 projected, meaning the model sees the game landing on or just below the line rather than clearing it.

Riga Prizma to win, overtime and shootout included, at 54%, with a projected score of 4–3.