Latvian Hockey League

HC Panter vs Energija Elektrenai prediction

HC Panter5–3–1 · Home Energija Elektrenai1–3–0 · Away03:00 PM UTCOct 24

70%win chance incl. overtime30%

Our pick

70%PAN70%PAN

HC Panter to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.43 · projected 3–2

HC Panter are 70% favourites to beat Energija Elektrenai, with a projected 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

PANHC Panter in 60'

60%

Tied → OTTied → OT

18%

ENEEnergija Elektrenai in 60'

22%

Game flow

PAN 3.6 · ENE 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.2–0.5

P2 · 1.1–1.1

P3 · 1.2–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)HC Panter70%1.43
Regulation result (60 minutes)HC Panter60%1.67
Puck lineEnergija Elektrenai +1.562%1.62
Total goalsUnder 6.551%1.96
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.15

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

HC Panter

70%fair 1.43

Regulation result (60 minutes)

HC Panter

60%fair 1.67

Puck line

Energija Elektrenai +1.5

62%fair 1.62

Total goals

Under 6.5

51%fair 1.96

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.15

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

A. LindePAN · 6 G in 8 GP · 8 GP6737%2.71
N. PuzakovPAN · 6 G in 9 GP · 9 GP6534%2.92
E. NevolainenPAN · 3 G in 5 GP · 5 GP3526%3.88
M. PotsinokPAN · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3525%4.05
Fedorovits NikitaPAN · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3524%4.24

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win HC Panter vs Energija Elektrenai?

HC Panter are 70% favourites to beat Energija Elektrenai, with a projected 3–2 final.

HC Panter arrive with four wins in their last five, averaging 4.4 goals scored and 2.6 conceded across that run. Energija Elektrenai have managed just one win in four, scoring 2.0 and allowing 4.0 per game. That gap in recent output matches the table, where HC Panter are 3rd and Energija Elektrenai are 9th.

Once the strength of opposition is taken into account, the ratings widen the divide: HC Panter sit at +0.14 goals per game against an average team, while Energija Elektrenai are at −0.42, a 0.56-goal edge for the hosts. Home ice in this league adds roughly 0.27 goals a game on top of that. Put together, the model sees HC Panter as clear favourites, though not overwhelming ones.

Inside regulation the model gives HC Panter 60% to win in 60 minutes and sets the chance of a tie after three periods at 18%, with overtime and a shootout deciding it from there. The market reads the game similarly: after the bookmaker margin is stripped out, HC Panter are priced at 73% on the moneyline across 4 bookmakers, a touch above the model's 70%. The small difference suggests the market is confident in the favourite without being extreme about it.

Energija Elektrenai's case rests on the possibility of a low-scoring game and a single goal deciding it, which the 18% tie probability after regulation keeps alive. But their recent scoring rate of 2.0 per game is modest, and HC Panter's 4.4 over the last five points to the hosts controlling the play. The projected 3–2 scoreline reflects a competitive game rather than a blowout.

The projected 3–2 final sits on the 6.5 total, with the under at 51% and the model's projection matching the line at 6.5. On the puck line, HC Panter −1.5 carries a 38% probability, meaning a one-goal margin is the likelier outcome than a cover. The moneyline price of 73% from 4 bookmakers lines up with the model's 70% for HC Panter including overtime and shootout.

Back HC Panter to win, overtime and shootout included, at 70%, with a projected 3–2 final.