Latvian Hockey League

Zemgale vs Kyiv Capitals prediction

Zemgale6–2–0 · Home Kyiv Capitals10–2–0 · Away07:00 PMOct 28

41%win chance incl. overtime59%

Our pick

59%KYI59%KYI

Kyiv Capitals to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.71 · projected 3–4

The numbers side with Kyiv Capitals (59%) on the road against Zemgale, with 4–3 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

ZEMZemgale in 60'

33%

Tied → OTTied → OT

17%

KYIKyiv Capitals in 60'

50%

Game flow

ZEM 3.3 · KYI 3.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.3–1.1

P2 · 1.1–1.7

P3 · 0.9–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Kyiv Capitals59%1.71
Regulation result (60 minutes)Kyiv Capitals50%2.01
Puck lineZemgale +1.565%1.54
Total goalsUnder 7.559%1.70
Both teams to scoreYes94%1.06

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Kyiv Capitals

59%fair 1.71

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Kyiv Capitals

50%fair 2.01

Puck line

Zemgale +1.5

65%fair 1.54

Total goals

Under 7.5

59%fair 1.70

Both teams to score

Yes

94%fair 1.06

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

D. SarkanisKYI · 13 G in 12 GP · 12 GP13844%2.29
P. ZabusovsZEM · 6 G in 7 GP · 7 GP6533%3.06
K. StradnieksKYI · 8 G in 12 GP · 12 GP8630%3.36
K. RokisZEM · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4525%4.08
E. H. JansonsKYI · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5623%4.30
A. NovikovsZEM · 4 G in 7 GP · 7 GP4123%4.31
G. SpruktsKYI · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5523%4.34
O. SislannikovsKYI · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3323%4.37
M. AntonsZEM · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3120%5.08
A. RajalaZEM · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2216%6.09

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Zemgale vs Kyiv Capitals?

The numbers side with Kyiv Capitals (59%) on the road against Zemgale, with 4–3 the most likely final score.

Zemgale have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch. Kyiv Capitals have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 5.0 and allowing 2.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Zemgale sit 4th, while Kyiv Capitals sit 1st.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Zemgale rate +0.32 and Kyiv Capitals +1.05 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.73 goals to Kyiv Capitals. Home ice is worth about 0.16 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Kyiv Capitals 50% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 17%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Zemgale 0, Kyiv Capitals 1); the latest finished Kyiv Capitals 4–0 Zemgale on 2026-10-10.

Our own lines for this game: Kyiv Capitals −1.5 on the puck line (35%) and 7.5 total goals, with the under at 59% (7.3 projected).

Kyiv Capitals to win, overtime and shootout included (59%). Projected score: 4–3.