AHL

Colorado Eagles vs Charlotte Checkers prediction

Colorado Eagles5–1–1 · Home Charlotte Checkers5–2–0 · Away09:05 PMOct 27

53%win chance incl. overtime47%

Our pick

53%COL53%COL

Colorado Eagles to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.90 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Colorado Eagles 53% favourites at home against Charlotte Checkers, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

COLColorado Eagles in 60'

43%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

CHACharlotte Checkers in 60'

37%

Game flow

COL 2.8 · CHA 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.1–0.6

P2 · 1.0–0.8

P3 · 0.7–1.3

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Colorado Eagles53%1.90
Regulation result (60 minutes)Colorado Eagles43%2.35
Puck lineCharlotte Checkers +1.573%1.37
Total goalsUnder 5.552%1.91
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.13

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Colorado Eagles

53%fair 1.90

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Colorado Eagles

43%fair 2.35

Puck line

Charlotte Checkers +1.5

73%fair 1.37

Total goals

Under 5.5

52%fair 1.91

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.13

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who will win Colorado Eagles vs Charlotte Checkers?

Our model makes Colorado Eagles 53% favourites at home against Charlotte Checkers, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Colorado Eagles have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.2 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch. Charlotte Checkers have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch.

Colorado Eagles sit 1st in the Pacific Division, while Charlotte Checkers sit 1st in the Atlantic Division.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Colorado Eagles rate +0.34 and Charlotte Checkers +0.04 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.30 goals to Colorado Eagles. Home ice is worth about -0.14 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Colorado Eagles win it in regulation only 43% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 53%.

Our own lines for this game: Colorado Eagles −1.5 on the puck line (27%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 52% (5.7 projected).

Colorado Eagles to win, overtime and shootout included (53%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.