Liiga

KalPa vs Vaasan Sport prediction

KalPa5–7–1 · Home Vaasan Sport6–6–2 · Away04:30 PM UTCOct 27

62%win chance incl. overtime38%

Our pick

62%KAL62%KAL

KalPa to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.60 · projected 2–1

Our model makes KalPa 62% favourites at home against Vaasan Sport, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 2–1 final.

After 60 minutes

KALKalPa in 60'

51%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

VAAVaasan Sport in 60'

28%

Game flow

KAL 2.6 · VAA 1.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–0.6

P2 · 1.1–0.6

P3 · 0.6–0.7

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)KalPa62%1.60
Regulation result (60 minutes)KalPa51%1.96
Puck lineVaasan Sport +1.567%1.49
Total goalsOver 4.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes80%1.25

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

KalPa

62%fair 1.60

Regulation result (60 minutes)

KalPa

51%fair 1.96

Puck line

Vaasan Sport +1.5

67%fair 1.49

Total goals

Over 4.5

55%fair 1.81

Both teams to score

Yes

80%fair 1.25

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

T. HartikainenKAL · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3221%4.87
A. KlemettiKAL · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4120%4.90
J. SaarelainenKAL · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3018%5.46
J. KononenKAL · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3018%5.61
J. LyytinenKAL · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3018%5.71
L. HeikkinenVAA · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4015%6.70
G. DiacoVAA · 3 G in 14 GP · 14 GP3213%7.87
S. AkerstromVAA · 2 G in 13 GP · 13 GP2313%7.88
I. WaltherVAA · 2 G in 13 GP · 13 GP2112%8.42
E. LevanenVAA · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2011%8.74

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win KalPa vs Vaasan Sport?

Our model makes KalPa 62% favourites at home against Vaasan Sport, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 2–1 final.

KalPa have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 1.4 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch. Vaasan Sport have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch.

KalPa sit 14th, while Vaasan Sport sit 13th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, KalPa rate −0.04 and Vaasan Sport −0.31 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.27 goals to KalPa. Home ice is worth about 0.42 goals a game in this league.

About 21% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why KalPa win it in regulation only 51% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 62%.

Our own lines for this game: KalPa −1.5 on the puck line (33%) and 4.5 total goals, with the over at 55% (4.8 projected).

KalPa to win, overtime and shootout included (62%). Projected score: 2–1.