Calgary Flames vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction
Our pick
Toronto Maple Leafs to win
incl. overtime · fair odds 1.73 · projected 2–3
Our model makes Toronto Maple Leafs 58% favourites on the road against Calgary Flames, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.
After 60 minutes
Game flow
CAL 2.9 · TOR 3.4 expected goals in 60 minutes
Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).
Markets
- Moneyline (incl. overtime)Toronto Maple Leafs58%1.73
- Regulation result (60 minutes)Toronto Maple Leafs48%2.10
- Puck lineCalgary Flames +1.568%1.48
- Total goalsUnder 6.552%1.93
- Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10
Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.
Lines
Lines from the last game · may change
Calgary Flames
Last game: Oct 22
1st line
5:39 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | Joel Farabee LW | 18:51 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 18 | Ben Jones C | 10:45 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 | Matt Coronato RW | 17:18 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
12 points this season
2nd line
7:07 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Ryan Strome LW | 15:19 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 76 | Martin Pospíšil C | 15:46 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 92 | Matvei Gridin RW | 14:57 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
8 points this season
3rd line
5:05 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | Aydar Suniev LW | 11:58 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 17 | Yegor Sharangovich C | 17:58 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 16 | Morgan Frost RW | 13:19 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
13 points this season
4th line
7:05 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | Brennan Othmann LW | 12:06 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 38 | Jonathan Castagna C | 18:28 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 43 | Adam Klapka RW | 11:09 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
4 points this season
1st pair
13:10 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Kevin Bahl D | 23:48 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 71 | Šimon Nemec D | 21:56 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
3 points this season
2nd pair
10:49 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Zach Whitecloud D | 21:22 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 55 | Jake Middleton D | 19:39 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
2 points this season
3rd pair
8:22 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Zayne Parekh D | 15:37 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 37 | Yan Kuznetsov D | 13:47 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
3 points this season
Power play unit 1
4:05 together on the power play
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | Joel Farabee F | 18:51 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 27 | Matt Coronato F | 17:18 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 92 | Matvei Gridin F | 14:57 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Morgan Frost F | 13:19 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 19 | Zayne Parekh D | 15:37 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
22 points this season
Power play unit 2
1:25 together on the power play
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Yegor Sharangovich F | 17:58 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 22 | Ryan Strome F | 15:19 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 61 | Aydar Suniev F | 11:58 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 43 | Adam Klapka F | 11:09 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 71 | Šimon Nemec D | 21:56 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
16 points this season
Penalty kill unit 1
1:56 together on the penalty kill
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | Joel Farabee F | 18:51 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 76 | Martin Pospíšil F | 15:46 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 28 | Zach Whitecloud D | 21:22 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 55 | Jake Middleton D | 19:39 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
11 points this season
Penalty kill unit 2
1:14 together on the penalty kill
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | Jonathan Castagna F | 18:28 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 17 | Yegor Sharangovich F | 17:58 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Kevin Bahl D | 23:48 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 37 | Yan Kuznetsov D | 13:47 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
7 points this season
Goalies: Dustin Wolf #32 (Projected) · Devin Cooley #1 (Backup)
Toronto Maple Leafs
Last game: Oct 22
1st line
13:46 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nick Paul LW | 17:27 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 86 | Kirill Marchenko C | 18:23 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| 88 | William Nylander RW | 20:12 | 6 | 9 | 15 |
32 points this season
2nd line
12:23 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | Jack Roslovic LW | 15:58 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| 34 | Auston Matthews C | 19:16 | 8 | 9 | 17 |
| 53 | Easton Cowan RW | 16:48 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
37 points this season
3rd line
5:19 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Brandon Duhaime LW | 14:14 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 73 | Teddy Blueger C | 15:18 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 19 | Zack Macewen RW | 7:06 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
7 points this season
4th line
7:12 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | Gavin McKenna LW | 10:44 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Colton Sissons C | 15:34 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 71 | Vinni Lettieri RW | 10:08 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
12 points this season
1st pair
16:02 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | Darren Raddysh D | 24:17 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 22 | Jake McCabe D | 21:03 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
6 points this season
2nd pair
14:23 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | Morgan Rielly D | 20:58 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 28 | Troy Stecher D | 20:17 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
9 points this season
3rd pair
9:34 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 19:22 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | Nick Blankenburg D | 11:27 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
2 points this season
Power play unit 1
2:31 together on the power play
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | William Nylander F | 20:12 | 6 | 9 | 15 |
| 34 | Auston Matthews F | 19:16 | 8 | 9 | 17 |
| 86 | Kirill Marchenko F | 18:23 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| 92 | Gavin McKenna F | 10:44 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 43 | Darren Raddysh D | 24:17 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
56 points this season
Power play unit 2
0:35 together on the power play
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | Easton Cowan F | 16:48 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| 96 | Jack Roslovic F | 15:58 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| 71 | Vinni Lettieri F | 10:08 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 44 | Morgan Rielly D | 20:58 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 95 | Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 19:22 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
28 points this season
Penalty kill unit 1
0:49 together on the penalty kill
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | Teddy Blueger F | 15:18 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 24 | Brandon Duhaime F | 14:14 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 22 | Jake McCabe D | 21:03 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 28 | Troy Stecher D | 20:17 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
8 points this season
Penalty kill unit 2
0:39 together on the penalty kill
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nick Paul F | 17:27 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | Colton Sissons F | 15:34 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 44 | Morgan Rielly D | 20:58 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 95 | Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 19:22 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
18 points this season
Goalies: Sergei Bobrovsky #72 (Projected) · Anthony Stolarz #41 (Backup)
Swipe the rink to switch units
How we read the lines
From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.
Photo credits (23)
- Ben Jones · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
- Brennan Othmann · JTB65, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Zach Whitecloud · Lakeland PBS, CC BY 3.0
- Devin Cooley · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Dustin Wolf · MTG1989, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Nick Paul · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
- Kirill Marchenko · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
- William Nylander · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
- Jack Roslovic · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
- Auston Matthews · Azadeh Kashani, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Brandon Duhaime · Kenneth C. Zirkel, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Teddy Blueger · Pens_Through_My_Lens, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Zack Macewen · Andrew McQuillan, CC BY-SA 2.0
- Gavin McKenna · Kaiser matias, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Colton Sissons · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
- Vinni Lettieri · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
- Darren Raddysh · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
- Jake McCabe · Xgeorg, CC BY-SA 3.0
- Morgan Rielly · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson · 5of7, CC BY-SA 2.0
- Nick Blankenburg · SecretName101, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Sergei Bobrovsky · Paula R. Lively from Zanesville, CC BY 2.0
- Anthony Stolarz · Jessica, CC BY-SA 2.0
Goalie duel
Projected
Goalie duelProjected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop
Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.
Photo credits (2)
- Dustin Wolf · MTG1989, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Sergei Bobrovsky · Paula R. Lively from Zanesville, CC BY 2.0
Who scores
Anytime goal, overtime included
Auston MatthewsTOR · C · 8 G in 10 GP · 10 GP8536%2.79
Kirill MarchenkoTOR · RW · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6630%3.36
William NylanderTOR · RW · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6327%3.75- Aydar SunievCAL · LW · 3 G in 5 GP · 5 GP3426%3.90
- Easton CowanTOR · RW · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5625%3.94
- Morgan FrostCAL · C · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3423%4.35
Jack RoslovicTOR · C · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4522%4.50- Yegor SharangovichCAL · C · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2218%5.48
- Matt CoronatoCAL · RW · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2417%5.75
- Adam KlapkaCAL · RW · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2217%5.78
The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.
Photo credits (4)
- Auston Matthews · Azadeh Kashani, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Kirill Marchenko · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
- William Nylander · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
- Jack Roslovic · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Who will win Calgary Flames vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
Our model makes Toronto Maple Leafs 58% favourites on the road against Calgary Flames, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.
Calgary Flames have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch. Toronto Maple Leafs have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.8 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch.
Calgary Flames sit 14th in the Western Conference, while Toronto Maple Leafs sit 6th in the Eastern Conference.
Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Calgary Flames rate −0.59 and Toronto Maple Leafs +0.15 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.74 goals to Toronto Maple Leafs. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.
In regulation the model gives Toronto Maple Leafs 48% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 20%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.
Our own lines for this game: Toronto Maple Leafs −1.5 on the puck line (32%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 52% (6.4 projected).
Toronto Maple Leafs to win, overtime and shootout included (58%). Projected score: 3–2.
Team leaders
- Points
- Goals
- Assists
- Penalty minutes
Season totals in this competition from the scoresheets so far (9 games per team); current squads only.
Photo credits (2)
- Auston Matthews · Azadeh Kashani, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson · 5of7, CC BY-SA 2.0
Recent form
W win · OTL loss in overtime or a shootout · L loss in regulation
Head to head
No recent meetings on record.
