Metal Ligaen

SønderjyskE vs Aalborg prediction

SønderjyskE6–7–0 · Home Aalborg6–7–0 · Away07:30 PMOct 26

54%win chance incl. overtime46%

Our pick

54%SØN54%SØN

SønderjyskE to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.84 · projected 3–2

SønderjyskE are the pick to win at 54%, with a projected 3–2 final score.

After 60 minutes

SØNSønderjyskE in 60'

44%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

AALAalborg in 60'

36%

Game flow

SØN 2.8 · AAL 2.6 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.4–1.0

P2 · 1.0–0.7

P3 · 1.4–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)SønderjyskE54%1.84
Regulation result (60 minutes)SønderjyskE44%2.26
Puck lineAalborg +1.572%1.39
Total goalsUnder 5.554%1.85
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

SønderjyskE

54%fair 1.84

Regulation result (60 minutes)

SønderjyskE

44%fair 2.26

Puck line

Aalborg +1.5

72%fair 1.39

Total goals

Under 5.5

54%fair 1.85

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

A. MogensenSØN · 7 G in 12 GP · 12 GP7732%3.10
R. VitolinsSØN · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5425%4.03
E. FlorchukSØN · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5624%4.22
M. AlmquistSØN · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4423%4.44
M. CarlsenSØN · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4421%4.88
J. JakobsenAAL · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3320%4.93
A. GrundtvigAAL · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4220%5.10
J. KorsgaardAAL · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4119%5.23
A. LindelofAAL · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3418%5.49
T. WelshAAL · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2317%5.81

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win SønderjyskE vs Aalborg?

SønderjyskE are the pick to win at 54%, with a projected 3–2 final score.

SønderjyskE hold the edge in this matchup, though only a slim one, at 54% to win with overtime and the shootout included. The ratings back that up: adjusted for the opponents they have faced, SønderjyskE sit at −0.14 goals per game against an average team and Aalborg at −0.21, a gap of 0.06 goals, before home ice adds roughly 0.18 more in SønderjyskE's favour. That combination is enough to tilt the game but not to separate the teams clearly.

Form points the same way. SønderjyskE have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch, while Aalborg have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 1.6 and allowing 2.6. Aalborg's defensive numbers are not disastrous, but the low scoring rate leaves little margin, and SønderjyskE's attack has been the more productive of the two.

The table places SønderjyskE 4th and Aalborg 7th, which fits the ratings and the recent results. The head-to-head record is thin, just 1 recent meeting, and it went SønderjyskE's way; the latest finished Aalborg 1–2 SønderjyskE on 2026-09-28. With about 20% of games like this one level after 60 minutes, SønderjyskE take it in regulation only 44% of the time on our numbers, with overtime and the shootout making up the rest of the 54%.

The market view is cautious rather than confident. At 54%, SønderjyskE are close to a coin flip, so the lean deserves care, and the projected 3–2 scoreline reflects how tight the game is expected to be.

The projected 3–2 score sits right on the 5.5 total, and our under at 54% (5.6 projected) is the slightly stronger side of that line. On the puck line, SønderjyskE −1.5 comes in at 28%, so a one-goal margin is the more likely outcome and the cover is the less probable result. The numbers favour SønderjyskE to win, but not by enough to make the puck line attractive.

SønderjyskE to win at 54%, with a projected 3–2 score.