Tractor Chelyabinsk vs Novosibirsk prediction
Our pick
Tractor Chelyabinsk to win
incl. overtime · fair odds 1.77 · projected 3–2
Tractor Chelyabinsk are the pick at 57% to win, with a projected 3–2 scoreline against Novosibirsk.
After 60 minutes
Game flow
TRA 2.5 · NOV 2.2 expected goals in 60 minutes
Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).
Markets
- Moneyline (incl. overtime)Tractor Chelyabinsk57%1.77
- Regulation result (60 minutes)Tractor Chelyabinsk45%2.20
- Puck lineNovosibirsk +1.572%1.39
- Total goalsOver 4.558%1.73
- Both teams to scoreYes82%1.22
Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.
Who scores
Anytime goal, overtime included
N. LegareTRA · 6 G in 16 GP · 16 GP6223%4.35- A. YaremchukNOV · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5420%4.91
- M. GrigorenkoTRA · 4 G in 17 GP · 17 GP4420%4.96
- A. NizameyevTRA · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4420%5.07
- I. VydrenkovTRA · 3 G in 17 GP · 17 GP3315%6.48
- S. PopovNOV · 4 G in 18 GP · 18 GP4215%6.53
D. DietzNOV · 5 G in 20 GP · 20 GP5115%6.54- P. TyutnevNOV · 4 G in 18 GP · 18 GP4115%6.55
- B. KatchoukTRA · 3 G in 17 GP · 17 GP3215%6.67
- S. NikulinNOV · 4 G in 20 GP · 20 GP4415%6.81
The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.
Who will win Tractor Chelyabinsk vs Novosibirsk?
Tractor Chelyabinsk are the pick at 57% to win, with a projected 3–2 scoreline against Novosibirsk.
Tractor Chelyabinsk hold a 57% edge at home over Novosibirsk, and the model's most likely outcome is a 3–2 finish. The margin is thin enough that the lean deserves caution rather than confidence, but the numbers still point one way. Home ice, valued at about 0.13 goals a game in this league, adds to the case for the hosts.
Form is nearly identical in wins: both sides have taken 2 of their last 5. The difference sits in the goals, with Tractor Chelyabinsk scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.0 per game over that stretch, while Novosibirsk have managed 2.2 while conceding 3.2. That defensive gap explains much of the model's lean toward the home side.
The table tells a different story, since Novosibirsk sit 8th in the Eastern Conference and Tractor Chelyabinsk 10th. Adjusted for opponents faced, though, Tractor Chelyabinsk rate −0.07 goals per game against an average team and Novosibirsk −0.30, an edge of 0.23 goals to the hosts. In regulation the model gives Tractor Chelyabinsk 46% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 21%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.
Head-to-head offers Novosibirsk their case: the teams have met once recently, and that game finished Tractor Chelyabinsk 1–2 Novosibirsk on 2026-10-10. One result is a small sample, so it carries limited weight against the season-long ratings. The market still makes Tractor Chelyabinsk the favourite, at 57% with overtime and shootout included.
The projected 3–2 score sits right on the 4.5 total goals line, and the over is priced at 58% with a 4.9 projected figure, so the model sees the game landing just above the number. On the puck line, Tractor Chelyabinsk −1.5 comes in at 28%, reflecting how narrow the expected margin is: a one-goal win does not cover it. The spread and total lines both tell the same story of a tight, low-margin game rather than a comfortable home win.
Tractor Chelyabinsk to win, overtime and shootout included, at 57%, with a projected score of 3–2.
Team leaders
- Points
- Goals
- Assists
- Penalty minutes
Season totals in this competition from the scoresheets so far (17 games per team); current squads only.
Recent form
W win · OTL loss in overtime or a shootout · L loss in regulation
Head to head
- Tractor Chelyabinsk 1–2 Novosibirsk
