KHL

SKA St. Petersburg vs CSKA Moscow prediction

SKA St. Petersburg9–7–1 · Home CSKA Moscow13–5–0 · Away05:00 PMOct 25

47%win chance incl. overtime53%

Our pick

53%CSK53%CSK

CSKA Moscow to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.88 · projected 2–3

CSKA Moscow are the narrow pick at 53% to win on the road against SKA St. Petersburg, with the model projecting a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

SKASKA St. Petersburg in 60'

36%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

CSKCSKA Moscow in 60'

42%

Game flow

SKA 2.5 · CSK 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.8

P2 · 1.1–1.2

P3 · 0.7–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)CSKA Moscow53%1.88
Regulation result (60 minutes)CSKA Moscow42%2.37
Puck lineSKA St. Petersburg +1.571%1.41
Total goalsUnder 5.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes86%1.16

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

CSKA Moscow

53%fair 1.88

Regulation result (60 minutes)

CSKA Moscow

42%fair 2.37

Puck line

SKA St. Petersburg +1.5

71%fair 1.41

Total goals

Under 5.5

55%fair 1.81

Both teams to score

Yes

86%fair 1.16

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

P. PoltapovCSK · 8 G in 15 GP · 15 GP8530%3.35
M. SorkinCSK · 8 G in 18 GP · 18 GP8327%3.68
S. PlotnikovSKA · 9 G in 17 GP · 17 GP9025%4.06
D. BuchelnikovCSK · 6 G in 18 GP · 18 GP6121%4.77
V. GlotovSKA · 5 G in 16 GP · 16 GP5320%5.03
V. AtanasovSKA · 6 G in 17 GP · 17 GP6220%5.04
D. GurianovCSK · 5 G in 17 GP · 17 GP5118%5.42
M. KhairullinCSK · 4 G in 18 GP · 18 GP4217%5.93
D. AimurzinSKA · 5 G in 17 GP · 17 GP5217%6.01
M. KorotkySKA · 4 G in 17 GP · 17 GP4315%6.80

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win SKA St. Petersburg vs CSKA Moscow?

CSKA Moscow are the narrow pick at 53% to win on the road against SKA St. Petersburg, with the model projecting a 3–2 final.

The model gives CSKA Moscow a 53% edge once overtime and shootout are folded in, so this is closer to a coin flip than the standings gap suggests. The projection lands at 3–2, a one-goal margin that fits a matchup between a road side in form and a home side searching for answers. SKA St. Petersburg hold home ice, worth about 0.12 goals a game in this league, but that cushion is not enough to flip the lean.

Form points in the same direction. SKA St. Petersburg have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch, while CSKA Moscow have won 3 of their last 5 at 2.2 for and 2.0 against. The table underlines the split: SKA St. Petersburg are 7th in the Western Conference and CSKA Moscow are 1st. Adjusted for opposition, SKA St. Petersburg rate −0.05 and CSKA Moscow +0.40 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.45 goals to CSKA Moscow.

The head-to-head sample is thin but recent, with one meeting between these teams and a 1–0 count in CSKA Moscow's favour. That latest game finished CSKA Moscow 6–5 SKA St. Petersburg on 2026-09-29, a scoreline that says little about how tight this one projects to be. In regulation the model gives CSKA Moscow 42% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 22%, with a tie going to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

The market reads the game much as the model does. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, CSKA Moscow are priced at 52% on the moneyline across 2 bookmakers, within a point of the model's 53%. That agreement leaves little room for a contrarian case beyond home ice and the volatility of a one-goal game, so the lean on CSKA Moscow is real but thin.

The projected 3–2 final sits under the 5.5 total goals line, and the model puts the under at 55% against a 5.6 projected total, so the numbers point slightly to a lower-scoring game than the line implies. On the puck line, CSKA Moscow −1.5 is given 29%, meaning a one-goal win is the likelier outcome and the cover is the less probable side. With a 3–2 projection and a 53% moneyline lean, the spread and total both argue for caution rather than conviction.

CSKA Moscow to win, overtime and shootout included, at 53%, with a projected score of 3–2.