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Löwen Frankfurt vs Grizzlys Wolfsburg prediction

Löwen Frankfurt4–6–1 · Home Grizzlys Wolfsburg5–5–2 · Away02:00 PMOct 25

57%win chance incl. overtime43%

Our pick

57%LÖW57%LÖW

Löwen Frankfurt to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.75 · projected 3–2

Löwen Frankfurt are the pick at home against Grizzlys Wolfsburg with a 57% win probability, overtime included, on a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

LÖWLöwen Frankfurt in 60'

47%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

GRIGrizzlys Wolfsburg in 60'

33%

Game flow

LÖW 2.8 · GRI 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.4–0.7

P2 · 1.1–0.9

P3 · 1.3–0.7

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Löwen Frankfurt57%1.75
Regulation result (60 minutes)Löwen Frankfurt47%2.13
Puck lineGrizzlys Wolfsburg +1.570%1.43
Total goalsUnder 5.559%1.70
Both teams to scoreYes85%1.17

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Löwen Frankfurt

57%fair 1.75

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Löwen Frankfurt

47%fair 2.13

Puck line

Grizzlys Wolfsburg +1.5

70%fair 1.43

Total goals

Under 5.5

59%fair 1.70

Both teams to score

Yes

85%fair 1.17

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

T. KoseLÖW · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4329%3.44
E. UbaLÖW · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5126%3.78
C. BraceLÖW · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3122%4.45
M. ChoupaniGRI · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4221%4.69
S. MachacekGRI · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5321%4.77
T. MorleyGRI · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4319%5.22
A. WagnerLÖW · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2219%5.23
T. GaudetGRI · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4419%5.31
J. FeserGRI · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3118%5.67
M. SchweigerLÖW · 1 G in 6 GP · 6 GP1115%6.52

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Löwen Frankfurt vs Grizzlys Wolfsburg?

Löwen Frankfurt are the pick at home against Grizzlys Wolfsburg with a 57% win probability, overtime included, on a projected 3–2 score.

Löwen Frankfurt hold the edge in this one, but only a slim one: the model gives them a 57% chance to win with overtime and a shootout included, and the projected score is 3–2. The ratings explain most of that lean. Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Löwen Frankfurt sit at −0.06 goals per game against an average team and Grizzlys Wolfsburg at −0.07, a difference of just 0.01. Home ice, worth about 0.37 goals a game in this league, is the bigger factor pushing the numbers toward the home side.

Neither team arrives in good form. Löwen Frankfurt have won 2 of their last 5 while scoring 2.0 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch, and Grizzlys Wolfsburg have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 1.6 and allowing 3.0. The table says the same thing in a different way: Grizzlys Wolfsburg sit 8th and Löwen Frankfurt 11th, so the away side is the higher-placed team despite the weaker recent run. That gap in the standings is why the home lean is thin rather than comfortable.

Inside regulation the model splits the game more finely still, giving Löwen Frankfurt 46% to win in 60 minutes and a 20% chance of a tie after three periods, with the tie going to overtime and, if needed, a shootout. Grizzlys Wolfsburg's case rests on their position in the table and on a Löwen Frankfurt side that has conceded 3.0 goals a game across its last 5, which keeps the visitors in reach of a result. The market implied by our numbers reflects that: this is close to a coin flip, so the lean should be treated with care.

The overall pick is Löwen Frankfurt, overtime and shootout included, at 57%, with a projected 3–2 score.

The projected 3–2 score lands right against the 5.5 total, and the numbers side with the under at 58%, with 5.4 projected. On the puck line, Löwen Frankfurt −1.5 is given only a 29% chance, which fits a one-goal projection: a 3–2 game does not clear a two-goal margin. The 57% win probability covers overtime and a shootout, so the moneyline lean is safer than the puck line in a game this tight.

Löwen Frankfurt to win, overtime and shootout included, at 57%, with a projected 3–2 score.