AHL

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton vs Hartford Wolf Pack prediction

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton3–2–1 · Home Hartford Wolf Pack3–5–0 · Away10:05 PM UTCOct 24

58%win chance incl. overtime42%

Our pick

58%WIL58%WIL

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.71 · projected 3–2

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton are the pick at home against Hartford Wolf Pack, with a 58% probability and a projected 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

WILWilkes-Barre/Scranton in 60'

49%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

HARHartford Wolf Pack in 60'

33%

Game flow

WIL 3.2 · HAR 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.8

P2 · 1.3–0.8

P3 · 1.1–1.2

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Wilkes-Barre/Scranton58%1.71
Regulation result (60 minutes)Wilkes-Barre/Scranton49%2.06
Puck lineHartford Wolf Pack +1.567%1.49
Total goalsOver 5.555%1.83
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton

58%fair 1.71

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton

49%fair 2.06

Puck line

Hartford Wolf Pack +1.5

67%fair 1.49

Total goals

Over 5.5

55%fair 1.83

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

L. GreentreeHAR · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3323%4.26
T. RaddyshHAR · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3122%4.60
G. GawdinHAR · 1 G in 6 GP · 6 GP1314%7.07
J. DowlingHAR · 1 G in 6 GP · 6 GP1114%7.07
N. AspinallHAR · 1 G in 7 GP · 7 GP1113%7.66

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Wilkes-Barre/Scranton vs Hartford Wolf Pack?

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton are the pick at home against Hartford Wolf Pack, with a 58% probability and a projected 3–2 final.

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton enter this one as the clear favourite, and the form line explains why. They have taken 3 of their last 5 while scoring 4.6 and conceding 2.6 per game, whereas Hartford Wolf Pack have lost all 5 of their recent outings, managing 1.4 goals a game while giving up 4.4. That gap in recent output is the loudest signal in the data.

The table points the same direction: Wilkes-Barre/Scranton are 3rd in the Atlantic Division and Hartford Wolf Pack are 5th. Once the quality of opposition is stripped out, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton sit at +0.34 goals per game against an average team and Hartford Wolf Pack at −0.28, a 0.62-goal edge for the home side. Home ice, worth about -0.10 goals a game in this league, trims that slightly but does not change the picture.

The two recent meetings are split 1–1, and the latest was a lopsided Hartford Wolf Pack 1–7 Wilkes-Barre/Scranton result on 2026-10-10, so the head-to-head offers little resistance to the favourite's case. Our model still leaves room for a tight finish: about 19% of games like this are level after 60 minutes, which is why Wilkes-Barre/Scranton win in regulation only 49% of the time on our numbers, with overtime and the shootout accounting for the rest of the 58%. The market's view of the winner is therefore firm but not overwhelming.

The projected 3–2 final sits below the 5.5 total line, yet our over probability is 55% against a 6.1 projected goals figure, so the model expects more scoring than the single most likely scoreline suggests. On the puck line, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton −1.5 carries just 33%, meaning the model sees the game landing on one goal far more often than not. The 58% win probability for Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, overtime and shootout included, is the anchor for both reads.

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton to win, overtime and shootout included, at 58%, with a projected 3–2 final.