Czech Extraliga

Sparta Prague vs Olomouc prediction

Sparta Prague5–5–2 · Home Olomouc2–10–0 · Away02:00 PM UTCOct 24

77%win chance incl. overtime23%

Our pick

77%SPA77%SPA

Sparta Prague to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.29 · projected 3–2

Sparta Prague are the pick at 77% to win, with the model projecting a 3–2 final score.

After 60 minutes

SPASparta Prague in 60'

67%

Tied → OTTied → OT

17%

OLOOlomouc in 60'

16%

Game flow

SPA 3.1 · OLO 2.1 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–0.5

P2 · 1.3–0.6

P3 · 1.2–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Sparta Prague77%1.29
Regulation result (60 minutes)Sparta Prague67%1.50
Puck lineOlomouc +2.563%1.58
Total goalsUnder 5.555%1.83
Both teams to scoreYes81%1.23

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Sparta Prague

77%fair 1.29

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Sparta Prague

67%fair 1.50

Puck line

Olomouc +2.5

63%fair 1.58

Total goals

Under 5.5

55%fair 1.83

Both teams to score

Yes

81%fair 1.23

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

M. SpacekSPA · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6631%3.26
D. ShoreSPA · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4224%4.15
J. SekacSPA · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4122%4.45
P. KousalSPA · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3322%4.61
J. KosOLO · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4321%4.76
J. NavratilOLO · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4320%4.98
R. KnotSPA · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3419%5.29
K. J. PlasekOLO · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3014%7.13
P. GewieseOLO · 2 G in 13 GP · 13 GP2012%8.44
D. HercikOLO · 2 G in 13 GP · 13 GP2111%9.08

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Sparta Prague vs Olomouc?

Sparta Prague are the pick at 77% to win, with the model projecting a 3–2 final score.

Sparta Prague's recent form is modest rather than dominant: two wins in five games, with 2.6 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game over that stretch. Olomouc have been far worse, winning once in five while scoring 1.4 and allowing 3.4. The gap in goal difference per game between the two recent runs is large, and it points in the same direction as the table, where Sparta Prague sit 8th and Olomouc 14th.

The ratings sharpen that picture. Adjusted for the opponents each side has faced, Sparta Prague rate +0.17 goals per game against an average team and Olomouc −0.71, an edge of 0.88 goals to Sparta Prague before home ice is added; home ice is worth about 0.15 goals a game in this league. That combination explains why the model makes Sparta Prague clear favourites and why the projected margin stays modest rather than wide.

Inside 60 minutes the model gives Sparta Prague 67% to win, with a 17% chance the game is tied after three periods; those ties go to overtime and, if needed, a shootout. The one recent meeting went Sparta Prague's way, 5–2 at Olomouc on 2026-09-16, and the head-to-head record reads Sparta Prague 1, Olomouc 0. The market is even more convinced than the model: after the bookmaker margin is removed, Sparta Prague are priced at 82% on the moneyline across 5 bookmakers, against the model's 77%.

Where Olomouc have a case is in the shape of the game rather than the result. Their scoring rate of 1.4 goals a game over the last five makes a low-scoring night their most plausible route, and a projected 3–2 scoreline keeps the margin within a single goal. That fits the 17% tie probability after regulation and the fact that the model's regulation win share for Sparta Prague, 67%, is well below the 77% figure that includes overtime and a shootout.

The projected 3–2 scoreline puts Sparta Prague −2.5 on the puck line at 37% on our numbers, so a comfortable cover is the less likely outcome even with Sparta Prague favoured. The projected 5.4 goals sit just under the 5.5 line, and the under lands 55% of the time. Both markets therefore lean away from the favourite's margin and toward a tighter, lower-scoring game than the moneyline price of 82% might suggest.

Sparta Prague to win, overtime and shootout included, at 77%, with a projected score of 3–2.