Czech Extraliga

Trinec vs Ceske Budejovice prediction

Trinec11–0–1 · Home Ceske Budejovice6–5–1 · Away03:00 PM UTCOct 23

71%win chance incl. overtime29%

Our pick

71%TRI71%TRI

Trinec to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.40 · projected 3–2

Trinec are the pick at home against Ceske Budejovice, with a 71% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

TRITrinec in 60'

60%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

CESCeske Budejovice in 60'

21%

Game flow

TRI 3.5 · CES 2.3 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.9

P2 · 1.1–0.4

P3 · 1.4–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Trinec71%1.40
Regulation result (60 minutes)Trinec60%1.66
Puck lineCeske Budejovice +1.554%1.87
Total goalsOver 5.550%1.99
Both teams to scoreYes85%1.17

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Trinec

71%fair 1.40

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Trinec

60%fair 1.66

Puck line

Ceske Budejovice +1.5

54%fair 1.87

Total goals

Over 5.5

50%fair 1.99

Both teams to score

Yes

85%fair 1.17

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

D. VozenilekTRI · 7 G in 12 GP · 12 GP7527%3.70
M. KubiesaTRI · 5 G in 9 GP · 9 GP5426%3.91
N. OlesenCES · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6324%4.16
J. OrdosCES · 5 G in 9 GP · 9 GP5223%4.28
O. KovarcikTRI · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5523%4.34
M. RuzickaTRI · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4721%4.70
F. PyrochtaTRI · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4221%4.77
J. StencelCES · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4419%5.25
J. PourCES · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4116%6.09
M. BeranekCES · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2214%6.93

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Trinec vs Ceske Budejovice?

Trinec are the pick at home against Ceske Budejovice, with a 71% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

Trinec arrive as the league's top side and the clear favourite, with a 71% win probability that includes overtime. Their recent run backs that up: four wins in five, 4.6 goals scored and just 1.6 conceded per game. Ceske Budejovice sit 5th and have won three of five, scoring 3.0 and allowing 2.4 over the same stretch.

The underlying numbers widen the gap. Adjusted for opponents faced, Trinec rate +0.88 goals per game against an average team while Ceske Budejovice sit at −0.08, an edge of 0.96 goals to the home side. Home ice adds about 0.15 goals a game in this league, which only strengthens Trinec's position.

The model splits the result across regulation and beyond: 60% for Trinec inside 60 minutes, with a 19% chance the game is tied after three periods and heads to overtime. The market reads it similarly, pricing Trinec at 73% on the moneyline once the bookmaker margin is removed across 9 bookmakers. That is close to the model's number, so the price offers little disagreement with the predictions.

The projected 3–2 scoreline suggests a game Trinec control without running away with it, which fits a Ceske Budejovice side that has been competitive in its recent wins. The visitors' case rests on that form and on keeping the margin tight rather than on any rating advantage.

With a projected 3–2 score, Trinec −1.5 on the puck line comes in at 46% on our numbers, so the model sees the game landing on the wrong side of that line more often than not. The projected 6 goals sit above the 5.5 line, and the over lands 50% against it, making the total a coin-flip rather than a strong lean.

Trinec to win, overtime and shootout included (71%), with a projected score of 3–2.