KHL

Lada vs Shanghai prediction

Lada2–10–5 · Home Shanghai10–4–2 · Away03:00 PM UTCOct 23

35%win chance incl. overtime65%

Our pick

65%SHA65%SHA

Shanghai to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.53 · projected 2–3

Shanghai are the pick on the road against Lada at 65%, with a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

LADLada in 60'

25%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

SHAShanghai in 60'

53%

Game flow

LAD 2.1 · SHA 2.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–0.6

P2 · 0.4–1.4

P3 · 1.0–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Shanghai65%1.53
Regulation result (60 minutes)Shanghai53%1.89
Puck lineLada +1.564%1.57
Total goalsUnder 5.561%1.63
Both teams to scoreYes84%1.19

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Shanghai

65%fair 1.53

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Shanghai

53%fair 1.89

Puck line

Lada +1.5

64%fair 1.57

Total goals

Under 5.5

61%fair 1.63

Both teams to score

Yes

84%fair 1.19

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

B. MurraySHA · 9 G in 15 GP · 15 GP9534%2.93
D. JaskinSHA · 8 G in 16 GP · 16 GP8427%3.72
D. ChenSHA · 6 G in 16 GP · 16 GP6527%3.77
R. SutterSHA · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5422%4.57
R. SawchukLAD · 6 G in 17 GP · 17 GP6020%4.89
A. ChivilyovLAD · 4 G in 17 GP · 17 GP4217%5.73
N. MakarovLAD · 2 G in 13 GP · 13 GP2314%6.91
T. MingachyovSHA · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2214%6.91
Y. GroshevLAD · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2114%6.98
R. ShakirovLAD · 2 G in 15 GP · 15 GP2012%8.17

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Lada vs Shanghai?

Shanghai are the pick on the road against Lada at 65%, with a projected 3–2 score.

Shanghai arrive as the stronger side by both table and rating, sitting 6th in the Western Conference while Lada are 10th. The ratings sharpen that gap: adjusted for opponents, Shanghai come out at +0.21 goals per game against an average team and Lada at −0.72, an edge of 0.93 goals to Shanghai. Home ice gives Lada back only about 0.09 goals a game, far too little to close that distance.

Recent form points the same way. Lada have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 1.0 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch, so the offence has been thin and the defence has leaked. Shanghai have won 2 of their last 5 while scoring 3.2 and allowing 3.0, a busier, higher-event profile that still produces more goals than it concedes relative to Lada's run.

The head-to-head is short but emphatic: the teams have met 1 time recently, and the latest finished Lada 0–5 Shanghai on 2026-10-05. One result proves little on its own, yet it fits the ratings rather than contradicting them. In regulation the model gives Shanghai 53% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 22%, with a tie going to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

The market reads the game the same way. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, the moneyline across 4 bookmakers prices Shanghai at 66%, effectively level with the model's 65% for the pick including overtime and shootout. Lada's case rests on home ice and the possibility that a low-scoring game drags the contest into the 22% tie scenario, but the goal-based edge sits clearly with the visitors.

The projected 3–2 scoreline leaves Shanghai short of the −1.5 puck line, which the model gives only 36%, so a one-goal margin would not cover it. The same projection of 5.2 goals sits under the 5.5 total, and the under carries 61%. That combination makes the moneyline the cleanest expression of the model's view, with the puck line and the total both leaning away from the favourite's side.

Shanghai to win, overtime and shootout included, at 65%, with a projected score of 3–2.