Liiga

Ilves vs Jukurit prediction

Ilves10–5–0 · Home Jukurit11–5–0 · Away05:00 PMOct 24

65%win chance incl. overtime35%

Our pick

65%ILV65%ILV

Ilves to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.53 · projected 3–2

Ilves are the pick at home against Jukurit: a 65% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

ILVIlves in 60'

52%

Tied → OTTied → OT

24%

JUKJukurit in 60'

25%

Game flow

ILV 2.6 · JUK 2.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.5

P2 · 0.6–0.8

P3 · 1.3–0.7

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Ilves65%1.53
Regulation result (60 minutes)Ilves52%1.93
Puck lineJukurit +1.562%1.60
Total goalsOver 4.559%1.71
Both teams to scoreYes80%1.26

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Ilves

65%fair 1.53

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Ilves

52%fair 1.93

Puck line

Jukurit +1.5

62%fair 1.60

Total goals

Over 4.5

59%fair 1.71

Both teams to score

Yes

80%fair 1.26

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

L. HenmanILV · 9 G in 16 GP · 16 GP9531%3.24
J. LookeILV · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4219%5.24
J. OlofssonJUK · 6 G in 15 GP · 15 GP6418%5.44
A. StrandILV · 5 G in 16 GP · 16 GP5118%5.51
B. KorhonenILV · 5 G in 16 GP · 16 GP5218%5.65
J. HayhurstJUK · 5 G in 14 GP · 14 GP5016%6.21
L. JasekILV · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4016%6.33
C. FordJUK · 5 G in 14 GP · 14 GP5315%6.46
L. BoudonJUK · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4213%7.52
A. LintuniemiJUK · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3113%7.52

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Ilves vs Jukurit?

Ilves are the pick at home against Jukurit: a 65% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Ilves have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 2.0 goals a game over that stretch. Jukurit have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 1.8 and allowing 2.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Ilves sit 3rd, while Jukurit sit 1st.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Ilves rate +0.29 and Jukurit +0.05 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.24 goals to Ilves. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Ilves 52% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 24%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 2 times recently (Ilves 2, Jukurit 0); the latest finished Jukurit 0–3 Ilves on 2026-10-23.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Ilves at 67% on the moneyline across 8 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Ilves −1.5 on the puck line comes in 38% of the time on our numbers, and the over 4.5 goals lands 59% against a projected 4.8 goals.

Ilves to win, overtime and shootout included (65%). Projected score: 3–2.