Liiga

Pelicans vs Tappara prediction

Pelicans6–6–1 · Home Tappara8–6–1 · Away05:00 PMOct 24

49%win chance incl. overtime51%

Our pick

51%TAP51%TAP

Tappara to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.96 · projected 2–3

Tappara are the narrow pick at 51% to win on the road against Pelicans, with a projected 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

PELPelicans in 60'

37%

Tied → OTTied → OT

25%

TAPTappara in 60'

38%

Game flow

PEL 2.4 · TAP 2.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.8

P2 · 0.6–0.7

P3 · 0.9–0.7

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Tappara51%1.96
Regulation result (60 minutes)Tappara38%2.60
Puck linePelicans +1.574%1.35
Total goalsOver 4.559%1.70
Both teams to scoreYes81%1.24

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Tappara

51%fair 1.96

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Tappara

38%fair 2.60

Puck line

Pelicans +1.5

74%fair 1.35

Total goals

Over 4.5

59%fair 1.70

Both teams to score

Yes

81%fair 1.24

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

A. DudasPEL · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5624%4.16
G. FortierPEL · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3420%4.89
A. RasanenTAP · 5 G in 15 GP · 15 GP5319%5.27
A. KettunenPEL · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3316%6.23
O. SuvantoTAP · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3415%6.87
O. MyklukhaPEL · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3215%6.87
R. KarvinenPEL · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3115%6.90
J. BlichfeldTAP · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4114%6.97
K. SimontaivalTAP · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3314%7.31
J. NykanenTAP · 3 G in 15 GP · 15 GP3012%8.47

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits: K. Simontaival: Kaiser matias, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Who will win Pelicans vs Tappara?

Tappara are the narrow pick at 51% to win on the road against Pelicans, with a projected 3–2 final.

This is about as tight as a matchup gets. The model gives Tappara 51% on the moneyline, overtime and shootout included, and the bookmakers are essentially in agreement: once the margin is stripped out, 8 bookmakers price Tappara at 53%. Pelicans hold home ice, worth roughly 0.42 goals a game in Liiga, which is the main reason the visitors are only marginal favourites rather than clear ones.

The table is also close, though neither side is where it wants to be. Pelicans are 12th and Tappara 10th, and both have won 2 of their last 5. Pelicans have scored 2.6 and conceded 2.4 over that stretch; Tappara have scored 2.4 and conceded 2.2. The form lines are almost identical, so recent results do not separate them.

The ratings do. Adjusted for the opponents faced, Pelicans sit at −0.03 goals per game against an average team while Tappara sit at +0.19, an edge of 0.22 goals to Tappara. That edge is smaller than the home-ice allowance, which is why the model still leans on Pelicans' venue advantage to keep this close. The head-to-head sample is thin: 1 recent meeting, won by Tappara, the latest finishing Pelicans 2–3 Tappara on 2026-09-15.

The projected 3–2 scoreline fits the ratings and the form. About 25% of games like this are level after 60 minutes, which is why Tappara win in regulation only 38% of the time on our numbers; the rest of the 51% comes from overtime and the shootout. With so little between the sides, the lean toward Tappara is real but fragile.

The projected 3–2 final sits right on the 4.5 goal line, and our numbers give the over 59% against a projected 4.8 goals. On the puck line, Tappara −1.5 comes in 26% of the time, so a one-goal margin is the likeliest outcome and the cover is the less likely side. The moneyline is the cleaner market here, with Tappara at 51% on our numbers against 53% from the market.

Tappara to win, overtime and shootout included (51%), with a projected 3–2 final.