HOCKEYORA
FinlandFinland2026 season

Liiga predictions

Games played
126/544
Teams
17
Home wins
60%
Avg goals
5
Sep 202626% of the season playedMar 2027
Top pick · LiigaLiiga · Karpat – KalPa61%Karpat to winincl. overtime · projected 3–2KAR in 60'48%Tie23%KAL in 60'29%Full analysis

Today, Friday, October 23 — Liiga: 5 games

The strongest pick is Karpat against KalPa: 61% to win, with a projected 3–2. The closest call is Lukko vs TPS Turku, 54% for Lukko and a projected 3–2. The highest projected total is 5 goals, in Jukurit vs Ilves.

Every game below has a win probability (overtime and shootout included), a projected score and lines for the puck line and total goals; where bookmakers price a game, the pick leans toward their consensus. Over the 2023–24 season the model called 62% of Liiga winners (495 games), against 55% for always backing the home team.

Next games

Recent results

How the Liiga season works

Liiga is Finland's top league. Each club plays 60 regular-season games from September to March. A regulation win is worth three points, a win after overtime or a shootout two, and a loss after overtime or a shootout one.

The top six go straight to the quarter-finals, seventh to tenth play a best-of-three round for the last two places, and the playoffs run into April.

Using the Liiga picks

Each game shows the moneyline (overtime and shootout included), the regulation result with the draw, a puck line and a total. Liiga has one of the highest shares of games tied after regulation in Europe, which the model measures and builds into every prediction. Ratings come from this season's Liiga results, with the league's own home-ice edge, blended with the betting market where bookmakers price the game.

Our Liiga record

Before launch the model was tested on the 2023–24 Liiga season, predicting each game only from the games before it, against always backing the home team and the team with the better points record. The test and the live record are on the accuracy page.

Liiga predictions: questions

How many points is a win worth in Liiga?
Three for a win in regulation, two for a win after overtime or a shootout, one for a loss after overtime or a shootout.
Are Liiga predictions free?
Yes. The win probability and projected score of every Liiga game are free to read, with no sign-up.
When are Liiga predictions published?
Up to three days before the face-off, and they update until the game starts.
How accurate are the Liiga predictions?
The model was tested on the whole 2023–24 season, predicting each game only from the games before it: it called 62% of Liiga winners in 495 games, against 55% for always backing the home team. Every new pick is settled in public on the accuracy page.
How many goals are scored in Liiga games?
Finished Liiga games this season have averaged 5 goals in total, and the home team has won 60% of them. Each game's own projected total is on its prediction page.
When are Liiga predictions published?
Up to 3 days before the face-off. Each prediction is updated as the betting market moves, until the game starts.
What do the puck line and the total mean?
The puck line is hockey's handicap: −1.5 means the favourite has to win by two goals or more, +1.5 that the underdog covers if it wins or loses by one. A win after overtime or a shootout is always by one goal. The total is the number of goals both teams score together, overtime included and a shootout counted as one goal; the over/under pick says whether the game should finish above or below the line.
Are the Liiga predictions free?
Yes. The win probability, projected score, puck line and total goals of every Liiga game are free to read, with no sign-up.
How are the predictions made?
Each team gets attack and defence ratings from this season's games in regulation, weighted toward recent form and adjusted for the opponents faced, plus a home-ice edge measured for each league. A Poisson model turns them into the chance of every score, ties go to overtime and the shootout, and where bookmakers price a game the model is blended with their consensus.