Liiga

JYP vs Tappara prediction

JYP9–3–1 · Home Tappara8–6–1 · Away06:30 PMOct 28

57%win chance incl. overtime43%

Our pick

57%JYP57%JYP

JYP to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.77 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with JYP (57%) at home against Tappara, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

JYPJYP in 60'

46%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

TAPTappara in 60'

33%

Game flow

JYP 2.7 · TAP 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–0.7

P2 · 0.8–0.7

P3 · 1.0–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)JYP57%1.77
Regulation result (60 minutes)JYP46%2.18
Puck lineTappara +1.571%1.41
Total goalsUnder 5.560%1.67
Both teams to scoreYes85%1.18

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

JYP

57%fair 1.77

Regulation result (60 minutes)

JYP

46%fair 2.18

Puck line

Tappara +1.5

71%fair 1.41

Total goals

Under 5.5

60%fair 1.67

Both teams to score

Yes

85%fair 1.18

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

L. TukiainenJYP · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5222%4.45
V. OjantakanenJYP · 5 G in 14 GP · 14 GP5221%4.66
A. TrueJYP · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4520%5.04
A. RasanenTAP · 5 G in 16 GP · 16 GP5119%5.36
R. NewkirkJYP · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4518%5.52
K. SimontaivalTAP · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4417%5.77
J. LassilaJYP · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4317%6.04
J. TuulolaTAP · 3 G in 16 GP · 16 GP3315%6.61
O. SuvantoTAP · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3514%7.00
J. BlichfeldTAP · 4 G in 16 GP · 16 GP4014%7.08

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (1)

K. Simontaival · Kaiser matias, CC BY-SA 4.0

Who will win JYP vs Tappara?

The numbers side with JYP (57%) at home against Tappara, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

JYP have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.0 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch. Tappara have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch.

JYP sit 7th, while Tappara sit 10th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, JYP rate +0.26 and Tappara +0.19 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.07 goals to JYP. Home ice is worth about 0.31 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives JYP 46% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 21%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: JYP −1.5 on the puck line (29%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 60% (5.3 projected).

JYP to win, overtime and shootout included (57%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.