Liiga

KooKoo vs Ässät prediction

KooKoo2–12–2 · Home Ässät9–5–2 · Away06:30 PMOct 28

44%win chance incl. overtime56%

Our pick

56%ÄSS56%ÄSS

Ässät to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.80 · projected 2–3

The numbers side with Ässät (56%) on the road against KooKoo, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

KOOKooKoo in 60'

34%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

ÄSSÄssät in 60'

45%

Game flow

KOO 2.5 · ÄSS 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.5–1.0

P2 · 1.2–0.7

P3 · 0.8–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Ässät56%1.80
Regulation result (60 minutes)Ässät45%2.21
Puck lineKooKoo +1.571%1.40
Total goalsUnder 5.557%1.75
Both teams to scoreYes86%1.16

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Ässät

56%fair 1.80

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Ässät

45%fair 2.21

Puck line

KooKoo +1.5

71%fair 1.40

Total goals

Under 5.5

57%fair 1.75

Both teams to score

Yes

86%fair 1.16

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

V. MiettinenKOO · 6 G in 16 GP · 16 GP6625%4.07
S. PinardÄSS · 5 G in 16 GP · 16 GP5424%4.10
A. PelliKOO · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3320%4.92
C. HillisÄSS · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4220%4.97
S. KostilainenÄSS · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4520%5.07
A. DoucetÄSS · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4220%5.07
O. JaakolaKOO · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4319%5.17
J. OlofssonÄSS · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3118%5.69
V. GalloKOO · 3 G in 14 GP · 14 GP3317%5.81
R. RoobaKOO · 3 G in 15 GP · 15 GP3216%6.21

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win KooKoo vs Ässät?

The numbers side with Ässät (56%) on the road against KooKoo, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

KooKoo have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 3.8 goals a game over that stretch. Ässät have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 1.8 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch.

KooKoo sit 17th, while Ässät sit 4th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, KooKoo rate −0.67 and Ässät +0.05 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.72 goals to Ässät. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Ässät win it in regulation only 45% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 56%.

Our own lines for this game: Ässät −1.5 on the puck line (29%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 57% (5.5 projected).

Ässät to win, overtime and shootout included (56%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.