KHL

CSKA Moscow vs Tractor Chelyabinsk prediction

CSKA Moscow13–5–0 · Home Tractor Chelyabinsk7–8–2 · Away07:30 PMOct 28

61%win chance incl. overtime39%

Our pick

61%CSK61%CSK

CSKA Moscow to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.64 · projected 3–2

Our model makes CSKA Moscow 61% favourites at home against Tractor Chelyabinsk, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

CSKCSKA Moscow in 60'

50%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

TRATractor Chelyabinsk in 60'

29%

Game flow

CSK 2.7 · TRA 2.1 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.4

P2 · 1.1–1.0

P3 · 0.8–0.6

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)CSKA Moscow61%1.64
Regulation result (60 minutes)CSKA Moscow50%2.00
Puck lineTractor Chelyabinsk +1.568%1.47
Total goalsOver 4.558%1.73
Both teams to scoreYes82%1.23

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

CSKA Moscow

61%fair 1.64

Regulation result (60 minutes)

CSKA Moscow

50%fair 2.00

Puck line

Tractor Chelyabinsk +1.5

68%fair 1.47

Total goals

Over 4.5

58%fair 1.73

Both teams to score

Yes

82%fair 1.23

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

P. PoltapovCSK · 8 G in 15 GP · 15 GP8528%3.52
M. SorkinCSK · 8 G in 18 GP · 18 GP8326%3.87
D. BuchelnikovCSK · 6 G in 18 GP · 18 GP6120%5.03
N. LegareTRA · 6 G in 16 GP · 16 GP6219%5.24
D. GurianovCSK · 5 G in 17 GP · 17 GP5117%5.72
M. GrigorenkoTRA · 4 G in 17 GP · 17 GP4417%5.98
A. NizameyevTRA · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4416%6.12
M. KhairullinCSK · 4 G in 18 GP · 18 GP4216%6.26
I. VydrenkovTRA · 3 G in 17 GP · 17 GP3313%7.86
B. KatchoukTRA · 3 G in 17 GP · 17 GP3212%8.10

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (1)

N. Legare · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0

Who will win CSKA Moscow vs Tractor Chelyabinsk?

Our model makes CSKA Moscow 61% favourites at home against Tractor Chelyabinsk, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

CSKA Moscow have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 2.0 goals a game over that stretch. Tractor Chelyabinsk have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.0 goals a game over that stretch.

CSKA Moscow sit 2nd in the Western Conference, while Tractor Chelyabinsk sit 10th in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, CSKA Moscow rate +0.40 and Tractor Chelyabinsk −0.07 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.47 goals to CSKA Moscow. Home ice is worth about 0.13 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives CSKA Moscow 50% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 21%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: CSKA Moscow −1.5 on the puck line (32%) and 4.5 total goals, with the over at 58% (4.9 projected).

CSKA Moscow to win, overtime and shootout included (61%). Projected score: 3–2.