Liiga

Kiekko-Espoo vs TPS prediction

Kiekko-Espoo7–6–3 · Home TPS9–5–1 · Away06:30 PMOct 28

55%win chance incl. overtime45%

Our pick

55%KIE55%KIE

Kiekko-Espoo to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.81 · projected 3–2

Kiekko-Espoo are the pick at home against TPS: a 55% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

KIEKiekko-Espoo in 60'

45%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

TPSTPS in 60'

35%

Game flow

KIE 2.7 · TPS 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.6

P2 · 0.9–0.7

P3 · 1.0–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Kiekko-Espoo55%1.81
Regulation result (60 minutes)Kiekko-Espoo45%2.24
Puck lineTPS +1.572%1.39
Total goalsUnder 5.559%1.69
Both teams to scoreYes86%1.17

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Kiekko-Espoo

55%fair 1.81

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Kiekko-Espoo

45%fair 2.24

Puck line

TPS +1.5

72%fair 1.39

Total goals

Under 5.5

59%fair 1.69

Both teams to score

Yes

86%fair 1.17

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. VaisanenKIE · 7 G in 15 GP · 15 GP7626%3.83
L. SvejkovskyKIE · 8 G in 17 GP · 17 GP8125%3.97
L. BryggmanTPS · 8 G in 17 GP · 17 GP8424%4.13
L. WernblomTPS · 7 G in 17 GP · 17 GP7222%4.52
M. FromKIE · 6 G in 17 GP · 17 GP6422%4.59
L. ObergKIE · 5 G in 17 GP · 17 GP5521%4.68
J. VirtanenTPS · 5 G in 17 GP · 17 GP5419%5.18
J. MaattaTPS · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4217%5.75
L. HaudumTPS · 5 G in 17 GP · 17 GP5217%5.76
J. SallinenKIE · 4 G in 16 GP · 16 GP4016%6.12

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Kiekko-Espoo vs TPS?

Kiekko-Espoo are the pick at home against TPS: a 55% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Kiekko-Espoo have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch. TPS have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Kiekko-Espoo sit 9th, while TPS sit 6th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Kiekko-Espoo rate +0.13 and TPS +0.14 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.00 goals to TPS. Home ice is worth about 0.31 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Kiekko-Espoo 45% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 21%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 2 times recently (Kiekko-Espoo 1, TPS 1); the latest finished TPS 4–2 Kiekko-Espoo on 2026-10-16.

Our own lines for this game: Kiekko-Espoo −1.5 on the puck line (28%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 59% (5.4 projected).

Kiekko-Espoo to win, overtime and shootout included (55%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.