NHL

Philadelphia Flyers vs Columbus Blue Jackets prediction

Philadelphia Flyers3–6–3 · Home Columbus Blue Jackets3–5–0 · Away07:00 PMOct 27

53%win chance incl. overtime47%

Our pick

53%PHI53%PHI

Philadelphia Flyers to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.88 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with Philadelphia Flyers (53%) at home against Columbus Blue Jackets, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

PHIPhiladelphia Flyers in 60'

42%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

COLColumbus Blue Jackets in 60'

36%

Game flow

PHI 2.8 · COL 2.6 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–0.8

P2 · 1.3–0.9

P3 · 0.9–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Philadelphia Flyers53%1.88
Regulation result (60 minutes)Philadelphia Flyers42%2.36
Puck lineColumbus Blue Jackets +1.573%1.37
Total goalsUnder 5.554%1.85
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Philadelphia Flyers

53%fair 1.88

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Philadelphia Flyers

42%fair 2.36

Puck line

Columbus Blue Jackets +1.5

73%fair 1.37

Total goals

Under 5.5

54%fair 1.85

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Philadelphia Flyers

Last game: Oct 24

1st line

6:31 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI
46	Trevor Zegras LW	15:42
22	Christian Dvorak C	16:38
52	Noel Acciari RW	11:04

AB20BumpLW

14CouturierC

71FoersterRW

2nd line

6:21 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI
20	Alex Bump LW	12:24
14	Sean Couturier C	12:53
71	Tyson Foerster RW	12:39

NC27CatesLW PM94MartoneC

39MichkovRW

3rd line

5:31 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI
27	Noah Cates LW	8:50
94	Porter Martone C	12:31
39	Matvei Michkov RW	12:59

JG78GaucherLW DB86BarkeyC CK54KnubleRW

4th line

3:26 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI
78	Jacob Gaucher LW	5:53
86	Denver Barkey C	11:10
54	Cole Knuble RW	7:16

6SanheimD OB59BonkD

1st pair

10:05 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI
6	Travis Sanheim D	21:42
59	Oliver Bonk D	13:22

9DrysdaleD

24SeelerD

2nd pair

7:38 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI
9	Jamie Drysdale D	17:35
24	Nick Seeler D	14:44

55RistolainenD HM19McDonaldD

3rd pair

6:52 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI
55	Rasmus Ristolainen D	13:04
19	Hunter McDonald D	8:42

46ZegrasF

39MichkovF PM94MartoneF

DB86BarkeyF

9DrysdaleD

Power play unit 1

4:13 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI
46	Trevor Zegras F	15:42
39	Matvei Michkov F	12:59
94	Porter Martone F	12:31
86	Denver Barkey F	11:10
9	Jamie Drysdale D	17:35

22DvorakF

71FoersterF AB20BumpF

6SanheimD OB59BonkD

Power play unit 2

1:47 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI
22	Christian Dvorak F	16:38
71	Tyson Foerster F	12:39
20	Alex Bump F	12:24
6	Travis Sanheim D	21:42
59	Oliver Bonk D	13:22

Penalty kill unit 1

1:33 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI
22	Christian Dvorak F	16:38
14	Sean Couturier F	12:53
6	Travis Sanheim D	21:42
24	Nick Seeler D	14:44

22DvorakF NC27CatesF

9DrysdaleD

55RistolainenD

Penalty kill unit 2

0:44 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI
22	Christian Dvorak F	16:38
27	Noah Cates F	8:50
9	Jamie Drysdale D	17:35
55	Rasmus Ristolainen D	13:04

Goalies: Dan Vladar #80 (Projected) · Joseph Woll #53 (Backup)

Columbus Blue Jackets

Last game: Oct 20

1st line

8:21 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
89	Matthew Knies LW	18:36	2	2	4
19	Adam Fantilli C	21:21	2	1	3
91	Kent Johnson RW	17:09	4	1	5

12 points this season

4SillingerLW

3CoyleC

24OlivierRW

2nd line

9:19 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
4	Cole Sillinger LW	13:29	3	2	5
3	Charlie Coyle C	23:02	1	6	7
24	Mathieu Olivier RW	16:13	2	0	2

14 points this season

10VoronkovLW

23MonahanC

43NichushkinRW

3rd line

6:57 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
10	Dmitri Voronkov LW	10:02	0	2	2
23	Sean Monahan C	13:13	1	2	3
43	Valeri Nichushkin RW	12:27	1	3	4

9 points this season

94LombergLW LB93BelluzC

83GarlandRW

4th line

8:12 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI
94	Ryan Lomberg LW	11:10
93	Luca Del Bel Belluz C	11:54
83	Conor Garland RW	12:15

0 points this season

8WerenskiD DM5MateychukD

1st pair

3:28 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
8	Zach Werenski D	27:11	0	6	6
5	Denton Mateychuk D	20:25	1	1	2

8 points this season

78SeversonD

2ChristiansenD

2nd pair

5:39 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
78	Damon Severson D	21:50	1	4	5
2	Jake Christiansen D	16:05	1	0	1

6 points this season

44GudbransonD EA36AndraeD

3rd pair

4:51 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
44	Erik Gudbranson D	14:20	0	1	1
36	Emil Andrae D	10:22	0	2	2

3 points this season

Power play unit 1

7:37 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
3	Charlie Coyle F	23:02	1	6	7
19	Adam Fantilli F	21:21	2	1	3
89	Matthew Knies F	18:36	2	2	4
91	Kent Johnson F	17:09	4	1	5
8	Zach Werenski D	27:11	0	6	6

25 points this season

23MonahanF

43NichushkinF

83GarlandF

10VoronkovF DM5MateychukD

Power play unit 2

0:35 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
23	Sean Monahan F	13:13	1	2	3
43	Valeri Nichushkin F	12:27	1	3	4
83	Conor Garland F	12:15	0	0	0
10	Dmitri Voronkov F	10:02	0	2	2
5	Denton Mateychuk D	20:25	1	1	2

11 points this season

Penalty kill unit 1

1:52 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
3	Charlie Coyle F	23:02	1	6	7
24	Mathieu Olivier F	16:13	2	0	2
8	Zach Werenski D	27:11	0	6	6
78	Damon Severson D	21:50	1	4	5

20 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2

0:45 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
19	Adam Fantilli F	21:21	2	1	3
23	Sean Monahan F	13:13	1	2	3
5	Denton Mateychuk D	20:25	1	1	2
2	Jake Christiansen D	16:05	1	0	1

9 points this season

Goalies: Jet Greaves #73 (Projected) · Cam Talbot #33 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (28)

Trevor Zegras · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Christian Dvorak · Jfvoll, CC BY-SA 4.0
Noel Acciari · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Sean Couturier · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 3.0
Tyson Foerster · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Matvei Michkov · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Travis Sanheim · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jamie Drysdale · StevenEllis546, Public domain
Nick Seeler · Sarah A., CC BY-SA 2.0
Rasmus Ristolainen · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Joseph Woll · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Dan Vladař · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Matthew Knies · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Adam Fantilli · Jenn G., CC BY-SA 2.5
Kent Johnson · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Cole Sillinger · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Charlie Coyle · Resolute, CC BY-SA 3.0
Mathieu Olivier · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Dmitri Voronkov · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Sean Monahan · Resolute, CC BY-SA 3.0
Valeri Nichushkin · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Ryan Lomberg · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Conor Garland · Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Zach Werenski · Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0
Damon Severson · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jake Christiansen · Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0
Erik Gudbranson · Pens Through My Lens, CC BY-SA 4.0
Cam Talbot · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Dan Vladar PHI

.900 save percentage

3.15 GAA · 2–3–1 · 6 starts

Jet Greaves COL

.883 save percentage

3.34 GAA · 2–3–0 · 1 shutout · 5 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (1)

Dan Vladar · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Matvei MichkovPHI · RW · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6536%2.81
Kent JohnsonCOL · C · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4325%3.94
Trevor ZegrasPHI · C · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3623%4.33
Cole SillingerCOL · C · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3220%4.88
Porter MartonePHI · RW · 2 G in 12 GP · 12 GP2117%5.86
Christian DvorakPHI · C · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2217%5.95
Adam FantilliCOL · C · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2216%6.10
Mathieu OlivierCOL · RW · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2016%6.45
Matthew KniesCOL · LW · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2015%6.62
Noel AcciariPHI · C · 1 G in 11 GP · 11 GP1113%7.81

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (9)

Matvei Michkov · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Kent Johnson · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Trevor Zegras · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Cole Sillinger · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Christian Dvorak · Jfvoll, CC BY-SA 4.0
Adam Fantilli · Jenn G., CC BY-SA 2.5
Mathieu Olivier · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Matthew Knies · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Noel Acciari · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Philadelphia Flyers vs Columbus Blue Jackets?

The numbers side with Philadelphia Flyers (53%) at home against Columbus Blue Jackets, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Philadelphia Flyers have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch. Columbus Blue Jackets have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 4.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Philadelphia Flyers sit 15th in the Eastern Conference, while Columbus Blue Jackets sit 16th in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Philadelphia Flyers rate −0.42 and Columbus Blue Jackets −0.37 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.05 goals to Columbus Blue Jackets. Home ice is worth about 0.24 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Philadelphia Flyers 42% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 21%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Philadelphia Flyers −1.5 on the puck line (27%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 54% (5.6 projected).

Philadelphia Flyers to win, overtime and shootout included (53%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.