Czech Extraliga

Karlovy Vary vs Mladá Boleslav prediction

Karlovy Vary8–4–0 · Home Mladá Boleslav4–8–1 · Away06:00 PMOct 27

65%win chance incl. overtime35%

Our pick

65%KAR65%KAR

Karlovy Vary to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.54 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Karlovy Vary 65% favourites at home against Mladá Boleslav, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

KARKarlovy Vary in 60'

54%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

MLAMladá Boleslav in 60'

26%

Game flow

KAR 2.9 · MLA 2.1 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.5

P2 · 0.9–1.0

P3 · 1.2–0.6

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Karlovy Vary65%1.54
Regulation result (60 minutes)Karlovy Vary54%1.84
Puck lineMladá Boleslav +1.563%1.58
Total goalsUnder 5.561%1.63
Both teams to scoreYes83%1.20

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Karlovy Vary

65%fair 1.54

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Karlovy Vary

54%fair 1.84

Puck line

Mladá Boleslav +1.5

63%fair 1.58

Total goals

Under 5.5

61%fair 1.63

Both teams to score

Yes

83%fair 1.20

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

D. StastnyKAR · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4422%4.45
O. BeranekKAR · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3420%4.92
P. TomekKAR · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3419%5.31
N. JonesKAR · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4319%5.31
J. CernochKAR · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3418%5.41
F. GavarsMLA · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4217%6.03
T. HykaMLA · 2 G in 5 GP · 5 GP2416%6.31
J. MartelMLA · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3114%6.97
M. GardonMLA · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3414%7.02
A. MorandMLA · 2 G in 13 GP · 13 GP2212%8.59

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Karlovy Vary vs Mladá Boleslav?

Our model makes Karlovy Vary 65% favourites at home against Mladá Boleslav, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Karlovy Vary have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.0 and allowing 1.6 goals a game over that stretch. Mladá Boleslav have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Karlovy Vary sit 3rd, while Mladá Boleslav sit 12th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Karlovy Vary rate +0.26 and Mladá Boleslav −0.46 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.72 goals to Karlovy Vary. Home ice is worth about 0.15 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Karlovy Vary 54% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 20%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Karlovy Vary 1, Mladá Boleslav 0); the latest finished Mladá Boleslav 1–4 Karlovy Vary on 2026-09-18.

Our own lines for this game: Karlovy Vary −1.5 on the puck line (37%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 61% (5.2 projected).

Karlovy Vary to win, overtime and shootout included (65%). Projected score: 3–2.