Czech Extraliga

Mlada Boleslav vs Ceske Budejovice prediction

Mlada Boleslav4–7–1 · Home Ceske Budejovice6–5–1 · Away03:00 PM UTCOct 25

50%win chance incl. overtime50%

Our pick

50%MLA50%MLA

Mlada Boleslav to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 2.00 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Mlada Boleslav 50% favourites at home against Ceske Budejovice, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

MLAMlada Boleslav in 60'

39%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

CESCeske Budejovice in 60'

39%

Game flow

MLA 2.6 · CES 2.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.8

P2 · 1.2–0.7

P3 · 0.8–1.4

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Mlada Boleslav50%2.00
Regulation result (60 minutes)Ceske Budejovice39%2.55
Puck lineCeske Budejovice +1.574%1.35
Total goalsUnder 5.554%1.85
Both teams to scoreYes86%1.16

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Mlada Boleslav

50%fair 2.00

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Ceske Budejovice

39%fair 2.55

Puck line

Ceske Budejovice +1.5

74%fair 1.35

Total goals

Under 5.5

54%fair 1.85

Both teams to score

Yes

86%fair 1.16

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

N. OlesenCES · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6329%3.49
J. OrdosCES · 5 G in 9 GP · 9 GP5228%3.59
J. StencelCES · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4423%4.38
F. GavarsMLA · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4220%4.89
J. PourCES · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4120%5.06
T. HykaMLA · 2 G in 5 GP · 5 GP2420%5.11
J. MartelMLA · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3118%5.63
M. GardonMLA · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3418%5.67
M. BeranekCES · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2217%5.75
A. MorandMLA · 2 G in 13 GP · 13 GP2214%6.92

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits: N. Olesen: Rolandhino1, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Who will win Mlada Boleslav vs Ceske Budejovice?

Our model makes Mlada Boleslav 50% favourites at home against Ceske Budejovice, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Mlada Boleslav have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch. Ceske Budejovice have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.0 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch.

Mlada Boleslav sit 12th, while Ceske Budejovice sit 5th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Mlada Boleslav rate −0.46 and Ceske Budejovice −0.08 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.39 goals to Ceske Budejovice. Home ice is worth about 0.15 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Mlada Boleslav 39% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 22%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Mlada Boleslav 1, Ceske Budejovice 0); the latest finished Ceske Budejovice 2–3 Mlada Boleslav on 2026-09-16.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Mlada Boleslav at 52% on the moneyline across 5 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Mlada Boleslav −1.5 on the puck line comes in 26% of the time on our numbers, and the under 5.5 goals lands 54% against a projected 5.7 goals.

Mlada Boleslav to win, overtime and shootout included (50%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.