KHL

Lada vs Sochi prediction

Lada2–11–5 · Home Sochi4–13–0 · Away02:00 PMOct 25

56%win chance incl. overtime44%

Our pick

56%LAD56%LAD

Lada to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.79 · projected 3–2

Lada are the pick at home against Sochi, with a 56% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

LADLada in 60'

45%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

SOCSochi in 60'

33%

Game flow

LAD 2.6 · SOC 2.3 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.5

P2 · 0.7–1.0

P3 · 1.0–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Lada56%1.79
Regulation result (60 minutes)Lada45%2.24
Puck lineSochi +1.573%1.36
Total goalsOver 4.561%1.64
Both teams to scoreYes84%1.19

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Lada

56%fair 1.79

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Lada

45%fair 2.24

Puck line

Sochi +1.5

73%fair 1.36

Total goals

Over 4.5

61%fair 1.64

Both teams to score

Yes

84%fair 1.19

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

D. VengryzhanovskySOC · 7 G in 16 GP · 16 GP7429%3.46
R. SawchukLAD · 6 G in 18 GP · 18 GP6024%4.19
A. ChivilyovLAD · 4 G in 18 GP · 18 GP4221%4.88
M. GuskovSOC · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3417%5.76
T. KhafizovSOC · 3 G in 14 GP · 14 GP3317%5.78
N. MakarovLAD · 2 G in 14 GP · 14 GP2317%5.84
Y. GroshevLAD · 2 G in 12 GP · 12 GP2117%5.91
R. ShakirovLAD · 2 G in 16 GP · 16 GP2015%6.88
A. GizdatullinSOC · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2114%7.05
T. AkhiyarovSOC · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2514%7.09

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Lada vs Sochi?

Lada are the pick at home against Sochi, with a 56% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

Lada sit 10th in the Western Conference and Sochi 11th, so the table separates these teams by a single place. The underlying ratings tell a similar story: adjusted for opposition, Lada rate −0.72 goals per game against an average team and Sochi −0.85, an edge of 0.13 goals to Lada. Home ice adds about 0.09 goals a game, which nudges the balance further toward the home side without making it lopsided.

Recent form cuts both ways. Lada have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 1.0 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch, so their attack has been thin. Sochi have won 2 of their last 5, but they have scored 2.2 and allowed 3.4 goals a game in that run, a defensive record that gives Lada a route to the result even without much scoring of their own.

The ratings and home ice together explain why Lada are favoured rather than dominant. About 22% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Lada win it in regulation only 45% of the time on our numbers, with overtime and the shootout making up the rest of the 56%. The market reads it the same way: once the bookmaker margin is removed, it prices Lada at 57% on the moneyline across 2 bookmakers, close to our own figure.

The projected 3–2 score fits a game that stays tight into the third period. Lada's case rests on the ratings gap and home ice, while Sochi's case rests on the fact that Lada have managed just 1.0 goals a game over their last 5. With the teams a place apart in the Western Conference, this is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.

The projected 3–2 score sits under the 5.5 total, and our numbers put the under at 62% with 5.2 projected goals. On the puck line, Lada −1.5 comes in at 27%, which follows from a one-goal projection: a two-goal margin is the less likely path. The moneyline price of 57% across 2 bookmakers lines up with our 56%, so the value is thin on the winner and clearer on the under.

Lada to win, overtime and shootout included (56%), with a projected score of 3–2.