KHL

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs Sochi prediction

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl13–5–0 · Home Sochi4–13–0 · Away07:00 PMOct 29

71%win chance incl. overtime29%

Our pick

71%LOK71%LOK

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.40 · projected 3–2

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl are the pick at home against Sochi: a 71% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

LOKLokomotiv Yaroslavl in 60'

61%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

SOCSochi in 60'

20%

Game flow

LOK 3.0 · SOC 1.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.2–0.2

P2 · 0.7–0.8

P3 · 1.1–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Lokomotiv Yaroslavl71%1.40
Regulation result (60 minutes)Lokomotiv Yaroslavl61%1.64
Puck lineSochi +1.557%1.75
Total goalsOver 4.559%1.69
Both teams to scoreYes80%1.25

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl

71%fair 1.40

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl

61%fair 1.64

Puck line

Sochi +1.5

57%fair 1.75

Total goals

Over 4.5

59%fair 1.69

Both teams to score

Yes

80%fair 1.25

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

A. RadulovLOK · 8 G in 17 GP · 17 GP8430%3.33
A. KayumovLOK · 4 G in 7 GP · 7 GP4328%3.57
D. VengryzhanovskySOC · 7 G in 16 GP · 16 GP7423%4.31
G. IvanovLOK · 5 G in 18 GP · 18 GP5521%4.79
G. FioreLOK · 4 G in 18 GP · 18 GP4419%5.23
Y. SurinLOK · 4 G in 18 GP · 18 GP4416%6.11
M. GuskovSOC · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3414%7.29
T. KhafizovSOC · 3 G in 14 GP · 14 GP3314%7.32
A. GizdatullinSOC · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2111%8.95
T. AkhiyarovSOC · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2511%9.02

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (1)

A. Radulov · Александр Головко, CC BY-SA 3.0

Who will win Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs Sochi?

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl are the pick at home against Sochi: a 71% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.2 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch. Sochi have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 3.4 goals a game over that stretch.

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl sit 1st in the Western Conference, while Sochi sit 11th in the Western Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl rate +0.27 and Sochi −0.85 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 1.12 goals to Lokomotiv Yaroslavl. Home ice is worth about 0.12 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 61% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 19%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 1, Sochi 0); the latest finished Sochi 3–6 Lokomotiv Yaroslavl on 2026-10-17.

Our own lines for this game: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl −1.5 on the puck line (43%) and 4.5 total goals, with the over at 59% (5 projected).

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl to win, overtime and shootout included (71%). Projected score: 3–2.