SHL

Rogle vs Malmö prediction

Rogle5–5–0 · Home Malmö4–2–3 · Away07:00 PMOct 29

55%win chance incl. overtime45%

Our pick

55%ROG55%ROG

Rogle to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.83 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Rögle 55% favourites at home against Malmo, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

ROGRogle in 60'

44%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

MALMalmö in 60'

35%

Game flow

ROG 2.6 · MAL 2.3 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–0.5

P2 · 1.3–0.8

P3 · 0.7–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Rogle55%1.83
Regulation result (60 minutes)Rogle44%2.29
Puck lineMalmö +1.573%1.37
Total goalsOver 4.560%1.65
Both teams to scoreYes83%1.20

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Rogle

55%fair 1.83

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Rogle

44%fair 2.29

Puck line

Malmö +1.5

73%fair 1.37

Total goals

Over 4.5

60%fair 1.65

Both teams to score

Yes

83%fair 1.20

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

L. HorkyROG · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6329%3.49
D. EverbergROG · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4424%4.13
C. PerssonMAL · 4 G in 7 GP · 7 GP4322%4.57
O. KaskiMAL · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5221%4.75
P. VesterheimMAL · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4218%5.43
J. KellmanROG · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3318%5.54
A. SundsvikROG · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2214%6.93
F. JohanssonROG · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2114%6.99
A. SundbergMAL · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2313%7.46
O. EklindMAL · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2313%7.47

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Rogle vs Malmö?

Our model makes Rögle 55% favourites at home against Malmo, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Rögle have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.0 goals a game over that stretch. Malmo have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Rögle sit 6th, while Malmo sit 7th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Rögle rate +0.10 and Malmo +0.23 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.13 goals to Malmo. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Rögle 44% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 22%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Rögle −1.5 on the puck line (27%) and 4.5 total goals, with the over at 60% (5.1 projected).

Rögle to win, overtime and shootout included (55%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.