KHL

Yekaterinburg vs Nizhny Novgorod prediction

Yekaterinburg8–8–2 · Home Nizhny Novgorod11–5–2 · Away05:00 PMOct 29

50%win chance incl. overtime50%

Our pick

50%YEK50%YEK

Yekaterinburg to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 2.00 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Yekaterinburg 50% favourites at home against Nizhny Novgorod, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

YEKYekaterinburg in 60'

39%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

NIZNizhny Novgorod in 60'

39%

Game flow

YEK 2.4 · NIZ 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.7

P2 · 0.8–0.5

P3 · 1.0–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Yekaterinburg50%2.00
Regulation result (60 minutes)Yekaterinburg39%2.54
Puck lineNizhny Novgorod +1.577%1.30
Total goalsOver 4.560%1.68
Both teams to scoreYes83%1.20

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Yekaterinburg

50%fair 2.00

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Yekaterinburg

39%fair 2.54

Puck line

Nizhny Novgorod +1.5

77%fair 1.30

Total goals

Over 4.5

60%fair 1.68

Both teams to score

Yes

83%fair 1.20

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

D. SeroukhNIZ · 9 G in 15 GP · 15 GP9326%3.82
D. SprongYEK · 7 G in 17 GP · 17 GP7222%4.46
J. BlackerYEK · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4121%4.75
V. TkachyovNIZ · 5 G in 15 GP · 15 GP5219%5.13
S. GoncharukNIZ · 5 G in 17 GP · 17 GP5219%5.25
A. KadeykinYEK · 5 G in 16 GP · 16 GP5218%5.45
I. KarpukhinYEK · 4 G in 18 GP · 18 GP4618%5.48
A. GarayevNIZ · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3218%5.64
M. DenezhkinYEK · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4415%6.47
M. PolyakovNIZ · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2314%7.16

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Yekaterinburg vs Nizhny Novgorod?

Our model makes Yekaterinburg 50% favourites at home against Nizhny Novgorod, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Yekaterinburg have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch. Nizhny Novgorod have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Yekaterinburg sit 7th in the Eastern Conference, while Nizhny Novgorod sit 6th in the Western Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Yekaterinburg rate +0.10 and Nizhny Novgorod +0.22 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.13 goals to Nizhny Novgorod. Home ice is worth about 0.13 goals a game in this league.

About 22% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Yekaterinburg win it in regulation only 39% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 50%.

Our own lines for this game: Yekaterinburg −1.5 on the puck line (23%) and 4.5 total goals, with the over at 60% (5 projected).

Yekaterinburg to win, overtime and shootout included (50%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.