KHL

Yekaterinburg vs Barys Astana prediction

Yekaterinburg7–8–2 · Home Barys Astana10–7–1 · Away05:00 PMOct 26

46%win chance incl. overtime54%

Our pick

54%BAR54%BAR

Barys Astana to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.86 · projected 2–3

Barys Astana are the pick on the road against Yekaterinburg: a 54% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

YEKYekaterinburg in 60'

36%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

BARBarys Astana in 60'

44%

Game flow

YEK 2.7 · BAR 2.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–0.7

P2 · 1.0–0.8

P3 · 1.0–1.4

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Barys Astana54%1.86
Regulation result (60 minutes)Barys Astana44%2.29
Puck lineYekaterinburg +1.572%1.39
Total goalsUnder 5.551%1.95
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.13

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Barys Astana

54%fair 1.86

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Barys Astana

44%fair 2.29

Puck line

Yekaterinburg +1.5

72%fair 1.39

Total goals

Under 5.5

51%fair 1.95

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.13

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. BaileyBAR · 12 G in 18 GP · 18 GP12533%3.05
D. SprongYEK · 7 G in 16 GP · 16 GP7227%3.73
T. ThompsonBAR · 8 G in 17 GP · 17 GP8126%3.78
A. KadeykinYEK · 5 G in 15 GP · 15 GP5222%4.52
S. SimonovBAR · 7 G in 18 GP · 18 GP7122%4.54
J. BlackerYEK · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3120%4.90
M. DenezhkinYEK · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4219%5.36
G. PilonBAR · 6 G in 18 GP · 18 GP6218%5.47
M. TarasovYEK · 3 G in 16 GP · 16 GP3217%5.74
M. MorelliBAR · 4 G in 18 GP · 18 GP4416%6.09

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits: G. Pilon: Hockeywithry, CC BY 4.0; M. Morelli: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Who will win Yekaterinburg vs Barys Astana?

Barys Astana are the pick on the road against Yekaterinburg: a 54% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Yekaterinburg have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch. Barys Astana have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Yekaterinburg sit 9th in the Eastern Conference, while Barys Astana sit 3rd in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Yekaterinburg rate −0.03 and Barys Astana +0.29 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.32 goals to Barys Astana. Home ice is worth about 0.09 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Barys Astana win it in regulation only 44% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 54%.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Yekaterinburg 0, Barys Astana 1); the latest finished Barys Astana 4–1 Yekaterinburg on 2026-10-14.

Our own lines for this game: Barys Astana −1.5 on the puck line (28%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 51% (5.8 projected).

Barys Astana to win, overtime and shootout included (54%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.