KHL

Cherepovets vs Spartak Moscow prediction

Cherepovets11–6–2 · Home Spartak Moscow11–5–2 · Away07:00 PMOct 29

46%win chance incl. overtime54%

Our pick

54%SPA54%SPA

Spartak Moscow to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.86 · projected 1–2

Our model makes Spartak Moscow 54% favourites on the road against Cherepovets, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 2–1 final.

After 60 minutes

CHECherepovets in 60'

35%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

SPASpartak Moscow in 60'

42%

Game flow

CHE 2.1 · SPA 2.3 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.7

P2 · 0.7–0.7

P3 · 0.7–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Spartak Moscow54%1.86
Regulation result (60 minutes)Spartak Moscow42%2.35
Puck lineCherepovets +1.575%1.34
Total goalsOver 4.553%1.88
Both teams to scoreYes80%1.25

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Spartak Moscow

54%fair 1.86

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Spartak Moscow

42%fair 2.35

Puck line

Cherepovets +1.5

75%fair 1.34

Total goals

Over 4.5

53%fair 1.88

Both teams to score

Yes

80%fair 1.25

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

A. BelyayevSPA · 9 G in 16 GP · 16 GP9325%3.92
D. YanCHE · 8 G in 19 GP · 19 GP8120%4.89
Y. FilinSPA · 6 G in 16 GP · 16 GP6219%5.15
R. AbrosimovCHE · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5419%5.35
I. IvantsovCHE · 5 G in 18 GP · 18 GP5216%6.33
M. MaltsevSPA · 5 G in 17 GP · 17 GP5116%6.35
I. RyabovSPA · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2215%6.72
D. GutikSPA · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4215%6.76
I. PodshivalovCHE · 3 G in 16 GP · 16 GP3413%7.56
N. A. PopugayevCHE · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4213%7.85

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Cherepovets vs Spartak Moscow?

Our model makes Spartak Moscow 54% favourites on the road against Cherepovets, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 2–1 final.

Cherepovets have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch. Spartak Moscow have won 5 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 0.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Cherepovets sit 4th in the Western Conference, while Spartak Moscow sit 3rd in the Western Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Cherepovets rate +0.14 and Spartak Moscow +0.47 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.33 goals to Spartak Moscow. Home ice is worth about 0.12 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Spartak Moscow 42% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 22%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 2 times recently (Cherepovets 0, Spartak Moscow 2); the latest finished Spartak Moscow 3–1 Cherepovets on 2026-10-23.

Our own lines for this game: Spartak Moscow −1.5 on the puck line (25%) and 4.5 total goals, with the over at 53% (4.7 projected).

Spartak Moscow to win, overtime and shootout included (54%). Projected score: 2–1. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.