KHL

Khabarovsk vs Vladivostok prediction

Khabarovsk9–7–1 · Home Vladivostok7–7–3 · Away07:00 AM UTCOct 25

59%win chance incl. overtime41%

Our pick

59%KHA59%KHA

Khabarovsk to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.69 · projected 2–1

Khabarovsk are the pick to win at home against Vladivostok, with a 59% probability and a projected 2–1 final.

After 60 minutes

KHAKhabarovsk in 60'

46%

Tied → OTTied → OT

24%

VLAVladivostok in 60'

30%

Game flow

KHA 2.3 · VLA 2.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.3–0.6

P2 · 0.9–0.7

P3 · 1.1–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Khabarovsk59%1.69
Regulation result (60 minutes)Khabarovsk46%2.16
Puck lineVladivostok +1.573%1.37
Total goalsOver 4.551%1.95
Both teams to scoreYes80%1.25

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Khabarovsk

59%fair 1.69

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Khabarovsk

46%fair 2.16

Puck line

Vladivostok +1.5

73%fair 1.37

Total goals

Over 4.5

51%fair 1.95

Both teams to score

Yes

80%fair 1.25

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Y. LikhachyovKHA · 5 G in 14 GP · 14 GP5324%4.14
A. CamaraVLA · 7 G in 14 GP · 14 GP7121%4.72
I. MuranovVLA · 5 G in 16 GP · 16 GP5517%5.82
K. PilipenkoKHA · 4 G in 17 GP · 17 GP4216%6.08
A. ShvaryovKHA · 4 G in 17 GP · 17 GP4416%6.17
A. KruchininKHA · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2014%7.05
V. AbramovKHA · 3 G in 16 GP · 16 GP3314%7.06
D. ZavgorodnyVLA · 3 G in 14 GP · 14 GP3213%7.54
A. VolkovVLA · 3 G in 15 GP · 15 GP3213%7.66
Y. ChezganovVLA · 4 G in 16 GP · 16 GP4212%8.05

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Khabarovsk vs Vladivostok?

Khabarovsk are the pick to win at home against Vladivostok, with a 59% probability and a projected 2–1 final.

Khabarovsk and Vladivostok arrive with identical recent records, each having won 3 of their last 5, but the similarity ends at the scoreline. Khabarovsk have scored 2.4 and allowed 1.6 goals a game over that stretch, while Vladivostok have scored 2.4 and allowed 3.0, a defensive gap that shapes this matchup. The table reinforces the split: Khabarovsk sit 6th in the Eastern Conference, Vladivostok 8th.

The ratings sharpen the picture. Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Khabarovsk rate +0.17 and Vladivostok −0.07 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.25 goals to Khabarovsk. Home ice is worth about 0.09 goals a game in this league, which pushes the gap further toward the hosts. Vladivostok's case rests on the same 2.4 goals a game they have produced recently, but their leaky defence makes that output harder to convert into wins.

In regulation the model gives Khabarovsk 46% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 24%, with a tie going to overtime and, if needed, a shootout. The betting market agrees with the model: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Khabarovsk at 60% on the moneyline across 4 bookmakers, close to our 59%. That consensus leaves little room for disagreement about who is favoured, only about how the game gets there.

Our lines for this game are Khabarovsk −1.5 on the puck line at 27% and a 4.5 total goals line with the over at 51%, against a 4.6 projected goals. The projected 2–1 score sits one goal clear of the puck line, which is why Khabarovsk covering −1.5 carries only a 27% probability. The same projection leaves the total just above the 4.5 line, with the over at 51%, a near coin-flip rather than a conviction play.

Khabarovsk to win, overtime and shootout included, at 59%, with a projected 2–1 final.