DEL

Schwenninger vs Eisbaren Berlin prediction

Schwenninger4–6–1 · Home Eisbaren Berlin8–2–0 · Away01:00 PM UTCOct 25

37%win chance incl. overtime63%

Our pick

63%EIS63%EIS

Eisbaren Berlin to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.58 · projected 2–3

Eisbaren Berlin are the pick at 63% to win on the road, overtime and shootout included, with a projected 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

SCHSchwenninger in 60'

28%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

EISEisbaren Berlin in 60'

53%

Game flow

SCH 2.4 · EIS 3.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–1.0

P2 · 0.5–1.2

P3 · 1.3–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Eisbaren Berlin63%1.58
Regulation result (60 minutes)Eisbaren Berlin53%1.88
Puck lineSchwenninger +1.564%1.57
Total goalsUnder 5.552%1.93
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Eisbaren Berlin

63%fair 1.58

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Eisbaren Berlin

53%fair 1.88

Puck line

Schwenninger +1.5

64%fair 1.57

Total goals

Under 5.5

52%fair 1.93

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

T. RonningEIS · 8 G in 10 GP · 10 GP8535%2.85
L. KirkEIS · 7 G in 10 GP · 10 GP7833%3.04
M. HofflinSCH · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6627%3.64
A. EderEIS · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5427%3.68
M. VikingstadEIS · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4425%3.96
P. FeistSCH · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5525%4.04
M. WiedererEIS · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4221%4.71
A. DziamborSCH · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2216%6.25
A. KarachunSCH · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2315%6.51
C. ValkSCH · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2413%7.53

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Schwenninger vs Eisbaren Berlin?

Eisbaren Berlin are the pick at 63% to win on the road, overtime and shootout included, with a projected 3–2 final.

Eisbaren Berlin arrive as the league's top side and the model's clear favourite, priced at 63% to take the win even with overtime and the shootout folded in. Their recent run backs that up: four wins in five, 3.8 goals scored and just 1.0 conceded per game. Schwenninger have been respectable over the same stretch, three wins in five at 3.0 scored and 2.4 allowed, but the gap in defensive numbers is stark.

The table tells the same story from a different angle. Schwenninger are 13th; Eisbaren Berlin are 1st. Once the quality of opposition is accounted for, Eisbaren Berlin sit at +0.66 goals per game against an average team and Schwenninger at −0.42, an edge of 1.08 goals to the visitors. Home ice is worth about 0.28 goals a game in this league, which narrows that edge but does not erase it.

The market's view of the winner is consistent with the ratings. Roughly 19% of games like this are level after 60 minutes, so Eisbaren Berlin take it in regulation only 53% of the time on our numbers, with overtime and the shootout supplying the rest of the 63%. Schwenninger's case rests on home ice and a scoring rate that has kept them competitive, but the model still leans firmly toward the road side.

The projected score of 3–2 reflects a game the visitors control without running away with it. Eisbaren Berlin's defensive record over the last five is the strongest argument for their favouritism, while Schwenninger's 3.0 goals per game suggests they can find the net at least once at home. That combination points to a tight, low-scoring contest rather than a rout.

With a projected score of 3–2, the 5.5 total sits above the model's 5.8 projection, and the under carries 52%. On the puck line, Eisbaren Berlin −1.5 comes in at 36%, which fits a one-goal margin in the projected final: the favourite wins, but not by two.

Eisbaren Berlin to win, overtime and shootout included, at 63%, with a projected 3–2 final.