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Eisbaren Berlin vs Augsburger Panther prediction

Eisbaren Berlin8–2–0 · Home Augsburger Panther5–5–0 · Away05:30 PM UTCOct 23

74%win chance incl. overtime26%

Our pick

74%EIS74%EIS

Eisbaren Berlin to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.34 · projected 3–2

Eisbaren Berlin are the pick at home against Augsburger Panther, with a 74% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

EISEisbaren Berlin in 60'

64%

Tied → OTTied → OT

18%

AUGAugsburger Panther in 60'

19%

Game flow

EIS 3.5 · AUG 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.8

P2 · 1.2–0.9

P3 · 1.6–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Eisbaren Berlin74%1.34
Regulation result (60 minutes)Eisbaren Berlin64%1.57
Puck lineAugsburger Panther +2.564%1.57
Total goalsUnder 6.556%1.80
Both teams to scoreYes86%1.17

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Eisbaren Berlin

74%fair 1.34

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Eisbaren Berlin

64%fair 1.57

Puck line

Augsburger Panther +2.5

64%fair 1.57

Total goals

Under 6.5

56%fair 1.80

Both teams to score

Yes

86%fair 1.17

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

T. RonningEIS · 8 G in 10 GP · 10 GP8537%2.68
L. KirkEIS · 7 G in 10 GP · 10 GP7835%2.85
A. EderEIS · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5429%3.44
M. VikingstadEIS · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4427%3.70
M. WiedererEIS · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4223%4.39
D. BusdekerAUG · 5 G in 9 GP · 9 GP5321%4.66
P. KraussAUG · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4320%5.01
T. ParkesAUG · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4220%5.06
M. EliasAUG · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2215%6.49
L. ToporowskiAUG · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3215%6.60

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Eisbaren Berlin vs Augsburger Panther?

Eisbaren Berlin are the pick at home against Augsburger Panther, with a 74% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

Eisbaren Berlin come into this one as the clear favourite, and the underlying numbers back that up. Over their last five games they have won four, scoring 3.8 goals a game while allowing just 1.0, a run that has them sitting 1st in the table. Augsburger Panther, 9th, have won two of their last five and have conceded 3.4 a game while scoring 2.6 over the same stretch, so the two sides arrive in very different shape.

Once you adjust for the quality of opponents faced, the gap looks just as wide. Eisbaren Berlin rate +0.66 goals per game against an average team, Augsburger Panther −0.10, an edge of 0.76 goals to the home side before home ice is even factored in. Home ice is worth about 0.28 goals a game in this league, which pushes the expected margin further in Eisbaren Berlin's direction and explains why the model lands on a 3–2 score rather than something closer.

The market has reached much the same conclusion. Across 9 bookmakers, once the margin is stripped out, Eisbaren Berlin are priced at 78% on the moneyline, a few points above our 74%. That difference is largely about how often games like this stay level: about 18% are tied after 60 minutes, which is why Eisbaren Berlin win in regulation only 64% of the time on our numbers, with overtime and the shootout accounting for the rest of the 74%.

For Augsburger Panther, the case rests on keeping this tight and taking it beyond regulation, where the 18% level-after-60 rate gives them a real path. Their recent scoring rate of 2.6 a game is enough to suggest they can find the net, but the 3.4 they are allowing against a side scoring 3.8 makes a low-scoring night the more plausible route. The table, the form and the adjusted ratings all point the same way, and the market's 78% confirms it.

The projected 3–2 score sits right on the edge of the puck line: Eisbaren Berlin −2.5 comes in 36% of the time on our numbers, so a one-goal margin leaves that line short. The total is the more interesting side, with the under 6.5 goals landing 56% against a projected 6 goals, a modest but real lean given how the two scoring and conceding rates combine.

Eisbaren Berlin to win, overtime and shootout included (74%). Projected score: 3–2.