Czech Extraliga

Vitkovice vs Kometa Brno prediction

Vitkovice2–7–2 · Home Kometa Brno6–4–1 · Away03:30 PM UTCOct 23

48%win chance incl. overtime52%

Our pick

52%KOM52%KOM

Kometa Brno to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.91 · projected 2–3

Kometa Brno are the pick on the road against Vitkovice, with a 52% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

VITVitkovice in 60'

37%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

KOMKometa Brno in 60'

41%

Game flow

VIT 2.6 · KOM 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.8

P2 · 1.0–1.1

P3 · 0.9–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Kometa Brno52%1.91
Regulation result (60 minutes)Kometa Brno41%2.43
Puck lineVitkovice +1.571%1.41
Total goalsUnder 5.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes86%1.17

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Kometa Brno

52%fair 1.91

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Kometa Brno

41%fair 2.43

Puck line

Vitkovice +1.5

71%fair 1.41

Total goals

Under 5.5

55%fair 1.81

Both teams to score

Yes

86%fair 1.17

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

R. LeinoKOM · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6630%3.31
J. FlekKOM · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4321%4.66
A. IrvingKOM · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2320%5.02
H. ZohornaKOM · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3119%5.15
J. HladonikVIT · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2219%5.29
C. YetmanVIT · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3318%5.56
A. NellisVIT · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3218%5.62
M. KalusVIT · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3217%5.75
J. ZborilVIT · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3217%5.82
F. KralKOM · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2417%5.84

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Vitkovice vs Kometa Brno?

Kometa Brno are the pick on the road against Vitkovice, with a 52% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

Kometa Brno head to Vitkovice as the model's narrow pick, holding a 52% chance to win once overtime and a shootout are included. The projected score of 3–2 reflects how little separates these teams, and the lean is close enough to a coin flip that it deserves caution rather than confidence. The market reaches the same conclusion: across 9 bookmakers, the margin-free moneyline price on Kometa Brno sits at 52%.

Recent form points the same way. Vitkovice have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 3.4 goals a game over that stretch, while Kometa Brno have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 2.0. The table backs up the gap in results, with Vitkovice 13th and Kometa Brno 9th. The two attacks have produced identical output lately; the difference is at the other end.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Vitkovice rate −0.35 and Kometa Brno −0.07 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.28 goals to Kometa Brno. Home ice is worth about 0.15 goals a game in this league, so it trims that edge without erasing it. Inside 60 minutes the model gives Kometa Brno 41% to win and puts a tie after three periods at 22%, with the tie going to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

The projected 3–2 score leaves Kometa Brno −1.5 on the puck line short of the mark, coming in 29% of the time on our numbers. The total sits at 5.5 goals against a projected 5.5, and the under 5.5 goals lands 55%. Both lines ask for a result the model does not project, which is why the win itself is the cleaner angle.

Kometa Brno to win, overtime and shootout included, at 52%, with a projected score of 3–2.