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Grizzly Wolfsburg vs ERC Ingolstadt prediction

Grizzly Wolfsburg5–4–2 · Home ERC Ingolstadt6–4–1 · Away05:30 PM UTCOct 23

48%win chance incl. overtime52%

Our pick

52%ERC52%ERC

ERC Ingolstadt to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.93 · projected 2–3

ERC Ingolstadt are the pick at 52% to win including overtime and a shootout, with a projected 3–2 scoreline.

After 60 minutes

GRIGrizzly Wolfsburg in 60'

38%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

ERCERC Ingolstadt in 60'

41%

Game flow

GRI 3.0 · ERC 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.7

P2 · 1.0–0.9

P3 · 1.3–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)ERC Ingolstadt52%1.93
Regulation result (60 minutes)ERC Ingolstadt41%2.45
Puck lineGrizzly Wolfsburg +1.572%1.39
Total goalsUnder 6.555%1.80
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.13

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

ERC Ingolstadt

52%fair 1.93

Regulation result (60 minutes)

ERC Ingolstadt

41%fair 2.45

Puck line

Grizzly Wolfsburg +1.5

72%fair 1.39

Total goals

Under 6.5

55%fair 1.80

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.13

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

D. SchmolzERC · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6529%3.44
R. BarberERC · 6 G in 9 GP · 9 GP6729%3.48
M. ChoupaniGRI · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4227%3.68
S. MachacekGRI · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5327%3.76
P. AbbandonatoERC · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5725%3.94
T. MorleyGRI · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4324%4.11
T. GaudetGRI · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4424%4.18
J. FeserGRI · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3123%4.43
R. SheenERC · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5323%4.44
S. RuoppERC · 2 G in 5 GP · 5 GP2416%6.28

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Grizzly Wolfsburg vs ERC Ingolstadt?

ERC Ingolstadt are the pick at 52% to win including overtime and a shootout, with a projected 3–2 scoreline.

The model gives ERC Ingolstadt a 52% edge on the road against Grizzly Wolfsburg, and the most likely final score is 3–2. That is a narrow lean rather than a clear call, and the numbers behind it pull in different directions. The result hinges on how much weight goes to recent form versus the underlying goal ratings.

Form clearly belongs to ERC Ingolstadt, who have won 4 of their last 5 while scoring 4.0 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch. Grizzly Wolfsburg have won just 1 of their last 5, scoring 1.6 and allowing 3.0 over the same run. The table tells a similar story: ERC Ingolstadt sit 6th and Grizzly Wolfsburg 8th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, the ratings are far tighter than the form suggests. Grizzly Wolfsburg rate −0.07 and ERC Ingolstadt −0.09 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.02 goals to Grizzly Wolfsburg. Home ice is worth about 0.28 goals a game in this league, which is the main reason the model keeps this close, and it is why the home side still has a case despite the recent record.

In regulation the model gives ERC Ingolstadt 41% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 21%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout. The teams have met once recently, with ERC Ingolstadt winning 3–2 on 2026-10-20. The market agrees with the lean: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices ERC Ingolstadt at 55% on the moneyline across 9 bookmakers.

With a projected score of 3–2, ERC Ingolstadt −1.5 on the puck line comes in only 28% of the time on our numbers, so the safer side of that line is against the road team covering. The projected 6 goals sits under the 6.5 line, and the under lands 55% against that number. The moneyline lean on ERC Ingolstadt is 52% on our figures against 55% from the market, so there is little value in backing the favourite there.

ERC Ingolstadt to win, overtime and shootout included, at 52%, with a projected score of 3–2.