P1 · 7'

Columbus Blue Jackets vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction

Columbus Blue Jackets3–5–0 · Home Vegas Golden Knights8–4–0 · Away0–0P1 · 7'

45%win chance incl. overtime55%

Live · updates automatically

Our pick

55%VEG55%VEG

Vegas Golden Knights to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.81 · projected 2–3

Vegas Golden Knights are the pick at 55%, with a projected 3–2 final score.

After 60 minutes

COLColumbus Blue Jackets in 60'

34%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

VEGVegas Golden Knights in 60'

44%

Game flow

COL 2.9 · VEG 3.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.3–0.8

P2 · 0.7–1.5

P3 · 0.9–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Vegas Golden Knights55%1.81
Regulation result (60 minutes)Vegas Golden Knights44%2.29
Puck lineColumbus Blue Jackets +1.568%1.47
Total goalsOver 5.556%1.78
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.12

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Vegas Golden Knights

55%fair 1.81

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Vegas Golden Knights

44%fair 2.29

Puck line

Columbus Blue Jackets +1.5

68%fair 1.47

Total goals

Over 5.5

56%fair 1.78

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.12

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Columbus Blue Jackets

Last game: Oct 20

1st line

8:21 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
89	Matthew Knies LW	18:36	2	2	4
19	Adam Fantilli C	21:21	2	1	3
91	Kent Johnson RW	17:09	4	1	5

12 points this season

4SillingerLW

3CoyleC

24OlivierRW

2nd line

9:19 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
4	Cole Sillinger LW	13:29	3	2	5
3	Charlie Coyle C	23:02	1	6	7
24	Mathieu Olivier RW	16:13	2	0	2

14 points this season

10VoronkovLW

23MonahanC

43NichushkinRW

3rd line

6:57 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
10	Dmitri Voronkov LW	10:02	0	2	2
23	Sean Monahan C	13:13	1	2	3
43	Valeri Nichushkin RW	12:27	1	3	4

9 points this season

94LombergLW LB93BelluzC

83GarlandRW

4th line

8:12 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI
94	Ryan Lomberg LW	11:10
93	Luca Del Bel Belluz C	11:54
83	Conor Garland RW	12:15

0 points this season

8WerenskiD DM5MateychukD

1st pair

3:28 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
8	Zach Werenski D	27:11	0	6	6
5	Denton Mateychuk D	20:25	1	1	2

8 points this season

78SeversonD

2ChristiansenD

2nd pair

5:39 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
78	Damon Severson D	21:50	1	4	5
2	Jake Christiansen D	16:05	1	0	1

6 points this season

44GudbransonD EA36AndraeD

3rd pair

4:51 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
44	Erik Gudbranson D	14:20	0	1	1
36	Emil Andrae D	10:22	0	2	2

3 points this season

Power play unit 1

7:37 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
3	Charlie Coyle F	23:02	1	6	7
19	Adam Fantilli F	21:21	2	1	3
89	Matthew Knies F	18:36	2	2	4
91	Kent Johnson F	17:09	4	1	5
8	Zach Werenski D	27:11	0	6	6

25 points this season

23MonahanF

43NichushkinF

83GarlandF

10VoronkovF DM5MateychukD

Power play unit 2

0:35 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
23	Sean Monahan F	13:13	1	2	3
43	Valeri Nichushkin F	12:27	1	3	4
83	Conor Garland F	12:15	0	0	0
10	Dmitri Voronkov F	10:02	0	2	2
5	Denton Mateychuk D	20:25	1	1	2

11 points this season

Penalty kill unit 1

1:52 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
3	Charlie Coyle F	23:02	1	6	7
24	Mathieu Olivier F	16:13	2	0	2
8	Zach Werenski D	27:11	0	6	6
78	Damon Severson D	21:50	1	4	5

20 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2

0:45 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
19	Adam Fantilli F	21:21	2	1	3
23	Sean Monahan F	13:13	1	2	3
5	Denton Mateychuk D	20:25	1	1	2
2	Jake Christiansen D	16:05	1	0	1

9 points this season

Goalies: Jet Greaves #73 (Projected) · Cam Talbot #33 (Backup)

Vegas Golden Knights

Last game: Oct 22

1st line

14:02 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
49	Ivan Barbashev LW	18:52	1	7	8
9	Jack Eichel C	16:46	5	14	19
61	Mark Stone RW	16:46	8	6	14

41 points this season

21HowdenLW

71KarlssonC

10HoltzRW

2nd line

12:09 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
21	Brett Howden LW	15:53	5	3	8
71	William Karlsson C	16:34	2	2	4
10	Alexander Holtz RW	14:04	0	1	1

13 points this season

TC24ConnellyLW

48HertlC BB42BowmanRW

3rd line

6:46 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
24	Trevor Connelly LW	13:53	4	1	5
48	Tomáš Hertl C	14:20	4	3	7
42	Braeden Bowman RW	14:56	2	2	4

16 points this season

MG17GatcombLW

26DowdC

36LavoieRW

4th line

3:45 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
17	Marc Gatcomb LW	11:56	1	1	2
26	Nic Dowd C	11:56	0	2	2
36	Raphael Lavoie RW	11:51	0	2	2

6 points this season

3McNabbD

27TheodoreD

1st pair

17:09 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
3	Brayden McNabb D	22:47	0	7	7
27	Shea Theodore D	22:37	2	2	4

11 points this season

4AnderssonD

5LauzonD

2nd pair

14:09 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
4	Rasmus Andersson D	19:48	2	3	5
5	Jeremy Lauzon D	18:15	0	0	0

5 points this season

15HanifinD

52CoghlanD

3rd pair

13:09 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
15	Noah Hanifin D	21:09	2	3	5
52	Dylan Coghlan D	15:28	0	1	1

6 points this season

Power play unit 1: No such unit in that game.

Power play unit 2: No such unit in that game.

Penalty kill unit 1

1:07 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
71	William Karlsson F	16:34	2	2	4
26	Nic Dowd F	11:56	0	2	2
3	Brayden McNabb D	22:47	0	7	7
27	Shea Theodore D	22:37	2	2	4

17 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2

0:38 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
61	Mark Stone F	16:46	8	6	14
9	Jack Eichel F	16:46	5	14	19
4	Rasmus Andersson D	19:48	2	3	5
5	Jeremy Lauzon D	18:15	0	0	0

38 points this season

Goalies: Carter Hart #79 (Projected) · Adin Hill #33 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (33)

Matthew Knies · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Adam Fantilli · Jenn G., CC BY-SA 2.5
Kent Johnson · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Cole Sillinger · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Charlie Coyle · Resolute, CC BY-SA 3.0
Mathieu Olivier · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Dmitri Voronkov · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Sean Monahan · Resolute, CC BY-SA 3.0
Valeri Nichushkin · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Ryan Lomberg · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Conor Garland · Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Zach Werenski · Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0
Damon Severson · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jake Christiansen · Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0
Erik Gudbranson · Pens Through My Lens, CC BY-SA 4.0
Cam Talbot · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Ivan Barbashev · Johnmaxmena2, CC BY-SA 4.0
Jack Eichel · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Mark Stone · Hugh Lee from Edmonton Alberta, Canada, CC BY-SA 2.0
Brett Howden · The Kip, CC BY-SA 4.0
William Karlsson · Frankie Fouganthin, CC BY-SA 4.0
Alexander Holtz · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Tomáš Hertl · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Nic Dowd · mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0
Raphael Lavoie · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Brayden McNabb · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
Shea Theodore · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
Rasmus Andersson · Jfvoll, CC BY-SA 4.0
Jeremy Lauzon · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Noah Hanifin · Photo by Jamie Kellner., CC BY-SA 3.0
Dylan Coghlan · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Adin Hill · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Carter Hart · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Jet Greaves COL

.883 save percentage

3.34 GAA · 2–3–0 · 1 shutout · 5 starts

Carter Hart VEG

.888 save percentage

2.87 GAA · 4–3–0 · 7 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (1)

Carter Hart · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Mark StoneVEG · RW · 8 G in 12 GP · 12 GP8834%2.97
Kent JohnsonCOL · C · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4328%3.63
Brett HowdenVEG · C · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5526%3.78
Jack EichelVEG · C · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5724%4.18
Cole SillingerCOL · C · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3222%4.48
Trevor ConnellyVEG · LW · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4220%4.97
Tomáš HertlVEG · C · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4120%5.03
Adam FantilliCOL · C · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2218%5.58
Mathieu OlivierCOL · RW · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2017%5.90
Matthew KniesCOL · LW · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2017%6.05

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (9)

Mark Stone · Hugh Lee from Edmonton Alberta, Canada, CC BY-SA 2.0
Kent Johnson · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Brett Howden · The Kip, CC BY-SA 4.0
Jack Eichel · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Cole Sillinger · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Tomáš Hertl · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Adam Fantilli · Jenn G., CC BY-SA 2.5
Mathieu Olivier · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Matthew Knies · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Columbus Blue Jackets vs Vegas Golden Knights?

Vegas Golden Knights are the pick at 55%, with a projected 3–2 final score.

Vegas Golden Knights carry a modest edge into Columbus Blue Jackets, and the model puts the visitors at 55% once overtime and the shootout are folded in. That figure is close enough to even that the lean deserves caution rather than confidence. The projected score of 3–2 captures the same idea: a game that can swing either way.

Form points the same direction. Columbus Blue Jackets have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 4.0 goals a game over that stretch, while Vegas Golden Knights have won 3 of their last 5 at 4.2 scored and 3.6 allowed. The table reinforces it, with Columbus Blue Jackets 16th in the Eastern Conference and Vegas Golden Knights 2nd in the Western Conference. Adjusted for opposition, Columbus Blue Jackets rate −0.37 and Vegas Golden Knights +0.16 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.53 goals to Vegas Golden Knights.

Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league, which trims that adjusted gap without erasing it. About 22% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, so Vegas Golden Knights win it in regulation only 44% of the time on our numbers, with overtime and the shootout making up the rest of the 55%. The market reads the game almost identically: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Vegas Golden Knights at 56% on the moneyline across 9 bookmakers.

Where the underdog has a case is in the margin itself. A 0.53-goal ratings edge minus the home-ice allowance leaves a thin separation, and the 44% regulation figure shows how often this kind of matchup stays unresolved. Columbus Blue Jackets do not need to outplay Vegas Golden Knights for 60 minutes to make the pick uncomfortable; they need only to keep it close into the third period.

The projected 3–2 scoreline sits right on the over 5.5 goals line, and our numbers have the over landing 56% against a projected 6.3 goals. On the puck line, Vegas Golden Knights −1.5 comes in 32% of the time, so a one-goal margin is the likelier shape of a Vegas Golden Knights win. The moneyline at 55% and the market's 56% across 9 bookmakers leave little room between model and price.

Vegas Golden Knights to win, overtime and shootout included, at 55%, with a projected score of 3–2.