NHL

St. Louis Blues vs Carolina Hurricanes prediction

St. Louis Blues5–4–1 · Home Carolina Hurricanes8–2–2 · Away07:00 PMOct 24

44%win chance incl. overtime56%

Our pick

56%CAR56%CAR

Carolina Hurricanes to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.78 · projected 2–3

Carolina Hurricanes are the pick on the road against St. Louis Blues with a 56% win probability, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

LOUSt. Louis Blues in 60'

34%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

CARCarolina Hurricanes in 60'

44%

Game flow

LOU 3.1 · CAR 3.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.8

P2 · 1.0–1.5

P3 · 1.2–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Carolina Hurricanes56%1.78
Regulation result (60 minutes)Carolina Hurricanes44%2.25
Puck lineSt. Louis Blues +1.568%1.48
Total goalsUnder 6.552%1.93
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Carolina Hurricanes

56%fair 1.78

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Carolina Hurricanes

44%fair 2.25

Puck line

St. Louis Blues +1.5

68%fair 1.48

Total goals

Under 6.5

52%fair 1.93

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

St. Louis Blues

Last game: Oct 22

JH30HoferProjected

DH81HollowayLW RT18ThomasC JS21SnuggerudRW

1st line

13:30 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
81	Dylan Holloway LW	18:40	3	7	10
18	Robert Thomas C	19:27	1	4	5
21	Jimmy Snuggerud RW	17:34	6	2	8

23 points this season

PB89BuchnevichLW JN63NeighboursC DD15DvorskyRW

2nd line

12:53 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
89	Pavel Buchnevich LW	17:14	2	4	6
63	Jake Neighbours C	16:38	3	2	5
15	Dalibor Dvorsky RW	15:05	2	1	3

14 points this season

CM77McMichaelLW MM83McTavishC JB29BerggrenRW

3rd line

11:20 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
77	Connor McMichael LW	13:14	2	5	7
83	Mason McTavish C	14:06	6	4	10
29	Jonatan Berggren RW	13:49	2	3	5

22 points this season

PS22SuterLW AK41KaskimakiC OS28StenbergRW

4th line

10:03 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
22	Pius Suter LW	11:50	3	3	6
41	Aleksanteri Kaskimaki C	12:38	0	1	1
28	Otto Stenberg RW	11:36	0	1	1

8 points this season

PB6BrobergD JB72BarronD

1st pair

9:56 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
6	Philip Broberg D	22:51	2	4	6
72	Justin Barron D	20:23	1	4	5

11 points this season

CF17FowlerD BC25CarloD

2nd pair

15:15 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
17	Cam Fowler D	20:32	0	4	4
25	Brandon Carlo D	19:27	0	1	1

5 points this season

CP55ParaykoD AJ36JiricekD

3rd pair

6:06 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
55	Colton Parayko D	18:36	0	4	4
36	Adam Jiricek D	16:20	1	1	2

6 points this season

RT18ThomasF DH81HollowayF JS21SnuggerudF

JN63NeighboursF PB6BrobergD

Power play unit 1

1:34 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
18	Robert Thomas F	19:27	1	4	5
81	Dylan Holloway F	18:40	3	7	10
21	Jimmy Snuggerud F	17:34	6	2	8
63	Jake Neighbours F	16:38	3	2	5
6	Philip Broberg D	22:51	2	4	6

34 points this season

Power play unit 2: No such unit in that game.

Penalty kill unit 1: No such unit in that game.

Penalty kill unit 2: No such unit in that game.

Goalies: Joel Hofer #30 (Projected) · Jordan Binnington #50 (Backup)

Carolina Hurricanes

Last game: Oct 22

32BussiProjected

WC28CarrierLW SA20AhoC AS37SvechnikovRW

1st line

12:11 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
28	William Carrier LW	17:27	0	7	7
20	Sebastian Aho C	22:06	7	8	15
37	Andrei Svechnikov RW	18:47	6	5	11

33 points this season

NE27EhlersLW LS22StankovenC JB53BlakeRW

2nd line

11:11 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
27	Nikolaj Ehlers LW	17:04	3	7	10
22	Logan Stankoven C	18:13	7	3	10
53	Jackson Blake RW	17:36	2	8	10

30 points this season

JM48MartinookLW JK82KotkaniemiC SJ24JarvisRW

3rd line

8:44 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
48	Jordan Martinook LW	15:07	1	4	5
82	Jesperi Kotkaniemi C	13:34	2	3	5
24	Seth Jarvis RW	15:15	1	0	1

11 points this season

ER50RobinsonLW

76Brind'AmourC ND44DeslauriersRW

4th line

5:28 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
50	Eric Robinson LW	11:22	2	4	6
76	Skyler Brind'Amour C	8:10	0	0	0
44	Nicolas Deslauriers RW	9:38	2	1	3

9 points this season

KM19MillerD SW26WalkerD

1st pair

15:32 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
19	K'Andre Miller D	28:06	1	3	4
26	Sean Walker D	27:25	0	6	6

10 points this season

JS74SlavinD JC5ChatfieldD

2nd pair

18:21 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
74	Jaccob Slavin D	25:49	0	3	3
5	Jalen Chatfield D	22:07	1	2	3

6 points this season

JV8ValimakiD SG4GostisbehereD

3rd pair

9:50 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
8	Juuso Valimaki D	16:00	1	1	2
4	Shayne Gostisbehere D	15:25	2	7	9

11 points this season

SA20AhoF AS37SvechnikovF JB53BlakeF

NE27EhlersF SG4GostisbehereD

Power play unit 1

1:24 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Sebastian Aho F	22:06	7	8	15
37	Andrei Svechnikov F	18:47	6	5	11
53	Jackson Blake F	17:36	2	8	10
27	Nikolaj Ehlers F	17:04	3	7	10
4	Shayne Gostisbehere D	15:25	2	7	9

55 points this season

LS22StankovenF SJ24JarvisF JK82KotkaniemiF

KM19MillerD JV8ValimakiD

Power play unit 2

0:34 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
22	Logan Stankoven F	18:13	7	3	10
24	Seth Jarvis F	15:15	1	0	1
82	Jesperi Kotkaniemi F	13:34	2	3	5
19	K'Andre Miller D	28:06	1	3	4
8	Juuso Valimaki D	16:00	1	1	2

22 points this season

JM48MartinookF ER50RobinsonF

JS74SlavinD JC5ChatfieldD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:54 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
48	Jordan Martinook F	15:07	1	4	5
50	Eric Robinson F	11:22	2	4	6
74	Jaccob Slavin D	25:49	0	3	3
5	Jalen Chatfield D	22:07	1	2	3

17 points this season

SA20AhoF SJ24JarvisF

KM19MillerD JV8ValimakiD

Penalty kill unit 2

0:43 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Sebastian Aho F	22:06	7	8	15
24	Seth Jarvis F	15:15	1	0	1
19	K'Andre Miller D	28:06	1	3	4
8	Juuso Valimaki D	16:00	1	1	2

22 points this season

Goalies: Brandon Bussi #32 (Projected) · Pyotr Kochetkov #52 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (4)

Jordan Binnington · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Skyler Brind'Amour · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Brandon Bussi · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Pyotr Kochetkov · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Joel Hofer LOU

.921 save percentage

2.17 GAA · 4–2–1 · 1 shutout · 7 starts

Brandon Bussi CAR

.865 save percentage

3.27 GAA · 2–2–2 · 6 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (1)

Brandon Bussi · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Jimmy SnuggerudLOU · RW · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6431%3.26
Mason McTavishLOU · C · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6630%3.35
Logan StankovenCAR · C · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7529%3.40
Sebastian AhoCAR · C · 7 G in 12 GP · 12 GP7528%3.63
Mark JankowskiCAR · LW · 6 G in 9 GP · 9 GP6227%3.75
Andrei SvechnikovCAR · RW · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6325%3.96
Dylan HollowayLOU · LW · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3723%4.34
Jake NeighboursLOU · LW · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3419%5.35
Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LW · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3718%5.50
Pius SuterLOU · C · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3418%5.55

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win St. Louis Blues vs Carolina Hurricanes?

Carolina Hurricanes are the pick on the road against St. Louis Blues with a 56% win probability, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Carolina Hurricanes carry a modest edge into St. Louis, and the numbers explain why it is modest rather than commanding. Their adjusted rate of +0.42 goals per game against an average team tops the +0.15 posted by St. Louis Blues, a gap of 0.27 goals. Home ice, worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league, nearly erases that gap, which is why the model settles on 56% for the visitors rather than anything larger.

Both clubs arrive in similar form. St. Louis Blues have won 3 of their last 5 while scoring 4.2 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch, and Carolina Hurricanes have also won 3 of their last 5, scoring 4.0 and allowing 3.2. The recent records are close to identical, so form does not separate them; the ratings edge and the standings do.

The table tells a different story about the season as a whole. Carolina Hurricanes sit 1st in the Eastern Conference, while St. Louis Blues sit 9th in the Western Conference, which supports the visitors as the stronger side over the longer run. Inside 60 minutes the model gives Carolina Hurricanes 44% to win in regulation and puts a tie after three periods at 22%, with overtime and a shootout deciding it from there.

The market reads the game the same way. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, Carolina Hurricanes are priced at 58% on the moneyline across 9 bookmakers, close to the model's 56%. That agreement matters, but it also confirms how thin the lean is: this is close to a coin flip, and the pick should be treated with care.

The projected 3–2 score puts the game right at the 6.5-goal line, and the under lands 52% against that projection. On the puck line, Carolina Hurricanes −1.5 comes in 32% of the time on our numbers, so the model expects a one-goal margin rather than a comfortable win. The moneyline price of 58% from the market sits close to the model's 56%, leaving little room between the two.

Carolina Hurricanes to win, overtime and shootout included, at 56%, with a projected score of 3–2.