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NHL

Boston Bruins vs San Jose Sharks prediction

Boston Bruins8–2–1 · HomeSan Jose Sharks6–4–1 · Away
57%win chance incl. overtime43%

Our pick

57%BOS

Boston Bruins to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.74 · projected 3–2

Boston Bruins are the pick at home against San Jose Sharks, with a 57% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

BOS
46%
Tied → OT
21%
SAN
32%

Game flow

BOS 3.4 · SAN 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds
  • Moneyline (incl. overtime)Boston Bruins57%1.74
  • Regulation result (60 minutes)Boston Bruins46%2.16
  • Puck lineSan Jose Sharks +1.561%1.65
  • Total goalsOver 5.553%1.89
  • Both teams to scoreYes89%1.13

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Boston Bruins

Last game: Oct 22

Forwards

  1. 1st line13 min together
    88LWPastrnakDavid18CZachaPavel10RWPeterkaJJ
  2. 2nd line12 min together
    39LWGeekieMorgan93CMintenFraser92RWKhusnutdinovMarat
  3. 3rd line10 min together
    11LWMittelstadtCasey44CHagensJames28RWLindholmElias
  4. 4th line9 min together
    84LWJeannotTanner47CKastelicMark51RWPoitrasMatthew

Defence

  1. 1st pair17 min together
    91DZadorovNikita17DBorgenWill
  2. 2nd pair16 min together
    27DLindholmHampus73DMcAvoyCharlie
  3. 3rd pair16 min together
    6DLohreiMason42DBrunetFrederic

Goalies

San Jose Sharks

Last game: Oct 22

Forwards

  1. 1st line8 min together
    2LWSmithWill71CCelebriniMacklin51RWGrafCollin
  2. 2nd line10 min together
    44LWSherwoodKiefer77CMisaMichael41RWStenbergIvar
  3. 3rd line7 min together
    23LWGoodrowBarclay10CDellandreaTy63RWOstapchukZack

Defence

  1. 1st pair16 min together
    65DTroubaJacob6DDickinsonSam
  2. 2nd pair14 min together
    25DNurseDarnell7DKesselringMichael
  3. 3rd pair13 min together
    9DOrlovDmitry5DAllanNolan

Goalies

How we read the lines: from the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop.

David Pastrnak: Bostonbruinsfan22, CC BY-SA 4.0; Pavel Zacha: Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0; JJ Peterka: Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Morgan Geekie: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0; Fraser Minten: Bardonvtn, CC BY 4.0; Casey Mittelstadt: CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0; James Hagens: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Elias Lindholm: Benjamin Reed, CC BY-SA 2.0; Tanner Jeannot: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0; Matthew Poitras: Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Nikita Zadorov: m_kania, CC BY 2.0; Will Borgen: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Hampus Lindholm: mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0; Charlie McAvoy: CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0; Mason Lohrei: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Will Smith: Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Macklin Celebrini: Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Collin Graf: Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Kiefer Sherwood: Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Michael Misa: Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Ivar Stenberg: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Barclay Goodrow: Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Ty Dellandrea: Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Zack Ostapchuk: Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Jacob Trouba: Stefan Brending ( 2eight ), CC BY-SA 3.0 de; Sam Dickinson: Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Darnell Nurse: All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0; Michael Kesselring: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Dmitry Orlov: Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Jeremy Swayman BOS

.928 save percentage

1.98 GAA · 6–1–1 · 1 shutout · 8 starts

Yaroslav Askarov SAN

.883 save percentage

3.43 GAA · 3–4–0 · 7 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits: Jeremy Swayman: Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Yaroslav Askarov: Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included
PlayerChanceFair odds

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (10)

David Pastrnak: Bostonbruinsfan22, CC BY-SA 4.0; Matthew Poitras: Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Elias Lindholm: Benjamin Reed, CC BY-SA 2.0; Macklin Celebrini: Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; JJ Peterka: Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Fraser Minten: Bardonvtn, CC BY 4.0; Tyler Toffoli: Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Ivar Stenberg: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Mason Marchment: Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Will Smith: Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Boston Bruins vs San Jose Sharks?

Boston Bruins are the pick at home against San Jose Sharks, with a 57% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

Boston Bruins carry the stronger recent form into this one, having won 4 of their last 5 while scoring 4.4 and allowing 1.8 goals a game over that stretch. San Jose Sharks have also been competitive, winning 3 of their last 5 at 3.4 goals scored and 2.8 allowed, but the gap at both ends of the ice is clear. The table reinforces it: Boston Bruins sit 2nd in the Eastern Conference, while San Jose Sharks sit 7th in the Western Conference.

Once the schedule is accounted for, the ratings tell a similar story. Adjusted for opponents faced, Boston Bruins rate +0.62 goals per game against an average team and San Jose Sharks −0.12, an edge of 0.75 goals to Boston Bruins before home ice is added; that home advantage is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league. The model's regulation split is not a runaway, though: Boston Bruins take 46% inside 60 minutes, with a 21% chance the game is tied after three periods and heads to overtime.

The head-to-head sample is small but points one way, with these teams meeting 1 time recently and Boston Bruins winning that game 6–3. The market is not far off the model either, pricing Boston Bruins at 54% on the moneyline across 2 bookmakers once the margin is removed, against the model's 57%. That leaves San Jose Sharks with a case built on their recent scoring and the possibility of forcing overtime, but the ratings, the standings and the form all favour the home side.

The projected 3–2 score sits right on the 5.5 total goals line, which is why the over comes in at 53% against a 6.1 projected goals figure. On the puck line, Boston Bruins −1.5 is priced at 39%, so a one-goal win in the model's scoreline would not cover it; the safer side of the projection is the moneyline, where Boston Bruins are backed at 57%.

Boston Bruins to win, overtime and shootout included, at 57%, with a projected 3–2 score.

Team leaders

Boston BruinsThis seasonSan Jose Sharks

Season totals in this competition from the scoresheets so far (11 games per team); current squads only.

Photo credits: David Pastrnak: Bostonbruinsfan22, CC BY-SA 4.0; Nikita Zadorov: m_kania, CC BY 2.0; Macklin Celebrini: Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Jacob Trouba: Stefan Brending ( 2eight ), CC BY-SA 3.0 de · Wikimedia Commons

Recent form

Boston Bruins

W6–0OTL2–3W4–1W4–2W6–3

San Jose Sharks

W6–2W4–3L1–3OTL3–4W3–2

W win · OTL loss in overtime or a shootout · L loss in regulation

Head to head

  • San Jose Sharks 3–6 Boston Bruins

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