AHL

Charlotte Checkers vs Springfield Thunderbirds prediction

Charlotte Checkers5–2–0 · Home Springfield Thunderbirds2–3–2 · Away06:00 PMOct 24

52%win chance incl. overtime48%

Our pick

52%CHA52%CHA

Charlotte Checkers to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.92 · projected 3–2

Charlotte Checkers are the pick at home against Springfield Thunderbirds, with a 52% win probability including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

CHACharlotte Checkers in 60'

41%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

SPRSpringfield Thunderbirds in 60'

37%

Game flow

CHA 2.8 · SPR 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.8

P2 · 0.9–1.1

P3 · 1.2–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Charlotte Checkers52%1.92
Regulation result (60 minutes)Charlotte Checkers41%2.46
Puck lineCharlotte Checkers +1.571%1.40
Total goalsUnder 5.555%1.83
Both teams to scoreYes86%1.17

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Charlotte Checkers

52%fair 1.92

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Charlotte Checkers

41%fair 2.46

Puck line

Charlotte Checkers +1.5

71%fair 1.40

Total goals

Under 5.5

55%fair 1.83

Both teams to score

Yes

86%fair 1.17

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who will win Charlotte Checkers vs Springfield Thunderbirds?

Charlotte Checkers are the pick at home against Springfield Thunderbirds, with a 52% win probability including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

Charlotte Checkers carry the stronger recent form into this one, having won 4 of their last 5 while scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch. Springfield Thunderbirds have lost all 5 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 3.8 goals a game, a defensive record that leaves them exposed. The division table points the same way: Charlotte Checkers sit 2nd in the Atlantic Division, Springfield Thunderbirds 6th.

The ratings give Charlotte Checkers a modest edge of 0.20 goals per game once opponents are accounted for, with Charlotte Checkers at +0.04 and Springfield Thunderbirds at −0.15 against an average team. Home ice is worth about -0.10 goals a game in this league, which trims that advantage rather than removing it. The recent head-to-head record also favours the home side: the teams have met 2 times recently and Charlotte Checkers won both, the latest finishing 3–2 on 2026-10-23.

Because about 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, Charlotte Checkers win it in regulation only 41% of the time on our numbers, with overtime and the shootout making up the rest of the 52%. That splits the difference between a clear lean and a coin flip, and the market's view of the winner stays cautious for that reason. The projected 3–2 scoreline fits the pattern of a tight game decided late.

The projected 3–2 score sits below the 5.5 total goals line, and the under carries 53% with a 5.7 projected figure, so the numbers lean slightly to the low side. On the puck line, Charlotte Checkers −1.5 comes in at just 26%, meaning a one-goal margin is the far more likely outcome and the spread offers little support for the favourite covering. With a 52% win probability including overtime and shootout, the moneyline lean is thin.

Charlotte Checkers to win, overtime and shootout included (52%), with a projected score of 3–2.