AHL

Milwaukee Admirals vs Manitoba Moose prediction

Milwaukee Admirals4–1–0 · Home Manitoba Moose6–2–0 · Away08:00 PMOct 28

43%win chance incl. overtime57%

Our pick

57%MAN57%MAN

Manitoba Moose to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.76 · projected 2–3

Our model makes Manitoba Moose 57% favourites on the road against Milwaukee Admirals, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

MILMilwaukee Admirals in 60'

34%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

MANManitoba Moose in 60'

47%

Game flow

MIL 2.7 · MAN 3.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–1.2

P2 · 0.9–0.6

P3 · 0.9–1.3

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Manitoba Moose57%1.76
Regulation result (60 minutes)Manitoba Moose47%2.13
Puck lineMilwaukee Admirals +1.569%1.46
Total goalsOver 5.554%1.86
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Manitoba Moose

57%fair 1.76

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Manitoba Moose

47%fair 2.13

Puck line

Milwaukee Admirals +1.5

69%fair 1.46

Total goals

Over 5.5

54%fair 1.86

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

B. YagerMAN · 5 G in 7 GP · 7 GP5627%3.70
N. GregorMAN · 5 G in 8 GP · 8 GP5626%3.87
D. ZhilkinMAN · 4 G in 7 GP · 7 GP4724%4.10
N. ChibrikovMAN · 4 G in 7 GP · 7 GP4724%4.15
P. FordMAN · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3823%4.32

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Milwaukee Admirals vs Manitoba Moose?

Our model makes Manitoba Moose 57% favourites on the road against Milwaukee Admirals, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Milwaukee Admirals have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 1.8 goals a game over that stretch. Manitoba Moose have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 4.8 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Milwaukee Admirals sit 3rd in the Central Division, while Manitoba Moose sit 2nd in the Central Division.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Milwaukee Admirals rate +0.14 and Manitoba Moose +0.44 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.31 goals to Manitoba Moose. Home ice is worth about -0.12 goals a game in this league.

About 19% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Manitoba Moose win it in regulation only 47% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 57%.

Our own lines for this game: Manitoba Moose −1.5 on the puck line (31%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 54% (6.1 projected).

Manitoba Moose to win, overtime and shootout included (57%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.