Slovak Extraliga

Slovan Bratislava vs Dukla Trenčín prediction

Slovan Bratislava8–4–1 · Home Dukla Trenčín6–5–1 · Away06:30 PMOct 28

65%win chance incl. overtime35%

Our pick

65%SLO65%SLO

Slovan Bratislava to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.53 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Slovan Bratislava 65% favourites at home against Dukla Trenčín, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

SLOSlovan Bratislava in 60'

56%

Tied → OTTied → OT

18%

DUKDukla Trenčín in 60'

26%

Game flow

SLO 3.3 · DUK 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.1–0.6

P2 · 1.0–0.9

P3 · 1.3–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Slovan Bratislava65%1.53
Regulation result (60 minutes)Slovan Bratislava56%1.80
Puck lineDukla Trenčín +1.561%1.64
Total goalsOver 5.550%1.99
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Slovan Bratislava

65%fair 1.53

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Slovan Bratislava

56%fair 1.80

Puck line

Dukla Trenčín +1.5

61%fair 1.64

Total goals

Over 5.5

50%fair 1.99

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

R. DmowskiSLO · 8 G in 12 GP · 12 GP8734%2.96
T. BarronDUK · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7328%3.58
J. DescheneauDUK · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6625%4.02
R. VargaSLO · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5125%4.07
J. PetriskaSLO · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4424%4.25
R. O'ConnorSLO · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3223%4.33
S. BucekSLO · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4420%5.02
T. LindenDUK · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4418%5.55
D. LakatosDUK · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3516%6.07
J. SiskaDUK · 2 G in 12 GP · 12 GP2212%8.31

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Slovan Bratislava vs Dukla Trenčín?

Our model makes Slovan Bratislava 65% favourites at home against Dukla Trenčín, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Slovan Bratislava have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 4.0 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch. Dukla Trenčín have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Slovan Bratislava sit 3rd, while Dukla Trenčín sit 8th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Slovan Bratislava rate +0.45 and Dukla Trenčín −0.03 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.48 goals to Slovan Bratislava. Home ice is worth about 0.46 goals a game in this league.

About 18% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Slovan Bratislava win it in regulation only 56% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 65%.

Our own lines for this game: Slovan Bratislava −1.5 on the puck line (39%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 50% (5.9 projected).

Slovan Bratislava to win, overtime and shootout included (65%). Projected score: 3–2.