HOCKEYORA
NHL

St. Louis Blues vs Montreal Canadiens prediction

St. Louis Blues5–4–1 · HomeMontreal Canadiens4–3–2 · Away
59%win chance incl. overtime41%

Our pick

59%LOU

St. Louis Blues to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.70 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with St. Louis Blues (59%) at home against Montreal Canadiens, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

LOU
49%
Tied → OT
20%
MON
32%

Game flow

LOU 3.4 · MON 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds
  • Moneyline (incl. overtime)St. Louis Blues59%1.70
  • Regulation result (60 minutes)St. Louis Blues49%2.06
  • Puck lineMontreal Canadiens +1.567%1.50
  • Total goalsUnder 6.552%1.94
  • Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

St. Louis Blues

Last game: Oct 22

Forwards

  1. 1st line14 min together
    81LWHollowayDylan18CThomasRobert21RWSnuggerudJimmy
  2. 2nd line13 min together
    89LWBuchnevichPavel63CNeighboursJake15RWDvorskyDalibor
  3. 3rd line11 min together
    77LWMcMichaelConnor83CMcTavishMason29RWBerggrenJonatan
  4. 4th line10 min together
    22LWSuterPius41CKaskimakiAleksanteri28RWStenbergOtto

Defence

  1. 1st pair10 min together
    6DBrobergPhilip72DBarronJustin
  2. 2nd pair15 min together
    17DFowlerCam25DCarloBrandon
  3. 3rd pair6 min together
    55DParaykoColton36DJiricekAdam

Goalies

Montreal Canadiens

Last game: Oct 20

Forwards

  1. 1st line13 min together
    20LWSlafkovskýJuraj14CSuzukiNick13RWCaufieldCole
  2. 2nd line11 min together
    22LWKreiderChris15CNewhookAlex17RWAndersonJosh
  3. 3rd line11 min together
    85LWTexierAlexandre24CDanaultPhillip76RWBolducZachary
  4. 4th line8 min together
    91LWKapanenOliver71CEvansJake77RWDachKirby

Defence

  1. 1st pair16 min together
    48DHutsonLane53DDobsonNoah
  2. 2nd pair16 min together
    21DGuhleKaiden45DCarrierAlexandre
  3. 3rd pair11 min together
    72DXhekajArber42DEngstromAdam

Goalies

How we read the lines: from the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop.

Juraj Slafkovský: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Nick Suzuki: Princesse sabrina, CC BY-SA 4.0; Cole Caufield: All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0; Chris Kreider: Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Alex Newhook: Maniacduhockey, CC0; Josh Anderson: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0; Alexandre Texier: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Phillip Danault: Hockeybroad, CC BY-SA 3.0; Zachary Bolduc: Shayypy, CC BY 4.0; Oliver Kapanen: Kaiser matias, CC BY-SA 4.0; Jake Evans: All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Kirby Dach: CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0; Lane Hutson: Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Noah Dobson: CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0; Kaiden Guhle: Kaiser matias, CC BY-SA 4.0; Alexandre Carrier: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0; Arber Xhekaj: Gatarys, CC0 · Wikimedia Commons

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Joel Hofer LOU

.921 save percentage

2.17 GAA · 4–2–1 · 1 shutout · 7 starts

Jakub Dobes MON

.847 save percentage

4.47 GAA · 1–2–2 · 5 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits: Jakub Dobes: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included
PlayerChanceFair odds

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits: Cole Caufield: All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0; Nick Suzuki: Princesse sabrina, CC BY-SA 4.0; Josh Anderson: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0; Zachary Bolduc: Shayypy, CC BY 4.0; Juraj Slafkovský: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win St. Louis Blues vs Montreal Canadiens?

The numbers side with St. Louis Blues (59%) at home against Montreal Canadiens, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

St. Louis Blues have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 4.2 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch. Montreal Canadiens have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.2 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch.

St. Louis Blues sit 9th in the Western Conference, while Montreal Canadiens sit 12th in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, St. Louis Blues rate +0.15 and Montreal Canadiens −0.17 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.32 goals to St. Louis Blues. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why St. Louis Blues win it in regulation only 49% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 59%.

Our own lines for this game: St. Louis Blues −1.5 on the puck line (33%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 52% (6.4 projected).

St. Louis Blues to win, overtime and shootout included (59%). Projected score: 3–2.

Team leaders

St. Louis BluesThis seasonMontreal Canadiens

Season totals in this competition from the scoresheets so far (9 games per team); current squads only.

Photo credits: Nick Suzuki: Princesse sabrina, CC BY-SA 4.0; Cole Caufield: All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0; Josh Anderson: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Recent form

St. Louis Blues

W6–2W2–1L2–5L4–5W7–2

Montreal Canadiens

OTL3–4W4–3L4–5W4–3W1–0

W win · OTL loss in overtime or a shootout · L loss in regulation

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day