SHL

Malmö vs Linköping prediction

Malmö4–2–3 · Home Linköping3–6–1 · Away07:00 PMOct 27

69%win chance incl. overtime31%

Our pick

69%MAL69%MAL

Malmö to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.45 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with Malmo (69%) at home against Linkoping, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

MALMalmö in 60'

58%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

LINLinköping in 60'

22%

Game flow

MAL 3.0 · LIN 1.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.6

P2 · 1.0–0.9

P3 · 1.2–0.4

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Malmö69%1.45
Regulation result (60 minutes)Malmö58%1.71
Puck lineLinköping +1.559%1.68
Total goalsOver 4.562%1.62
Both teams to scoreYes82%1.22

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Malmö

69%fair 1.45

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Malmö

58%fair 1.71

Puck line

Linköping +1.5

59%fair 1.68

Total goals

Over 4.5

62%fair 1.62

Both teams to score

Yes

82%fair 1.22

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

C. PerssonMAL · 4 G in 7 GP · 7 GP4328%3.62
O. KaskiMAL · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5227%3.76
P. VesterheimMAL · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4223%4.28
A. SundbergMAL · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2317%5.83
O. EklindMAL · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2317%5.83
L. HultstromLIN · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2315%6.87
C. MarodyLIN · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2214%6.90
B. ShinniminLIN · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2114%7.24
A. DegerstedtLIN · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2313%7.57
M. KokkonenLIN · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2112%8.05

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Malmö vs Linköping?

The numbers side with Malmo (69%) at home against Linkoping, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Malmo have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch. Linkoping have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 1.8 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Malmo sit 7th, while Linkoping sit 14th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Malmo rate +0.23 and Linkoping −0.48 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.71 goals to Malmo. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league.

About 19% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Malmo win it in regulation only 58% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 69%.

Our own lines for this game: Malmo −1.5 on the puck line (41%) and 4.5 total goals, with the over at 62% (5.2 projected).

Malmo to win, overtime and shootout included (69%). Projected score: 3–2.