SHL

Farjestad vs Vaxjo prediction

Farjestad9–0–1 · Home Vaxjo4–5–1 · Away04:00 PM UTCOct 24

71%win chance incl. overtime29%

Our pick

71%FAR71%FAR

Farjestad to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.41 · projected 3–2

Farjestad are the pick to beat Vaxjo at 71%, overtime and shootout included, with a projected 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

FARFarjestad in 60'

59%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

VAXVaxjo in 60'

20%

Game flow

FAR 3.3 · VAX 1.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.2–0.7

P2 · 1.0–0.6

P3 · 1.2–0.6

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Farjestad71%1.41
Regulation result (60 minutes)Farjestad59%1.70
Puck lineVaxjo +1.554%1.85
Total goalsUnder 5.556%1.79
Both teams to scoreYes82%1.22

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Farjestad

71%fair 1.41

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Farjestad

59%fair 1.70

Puck line

Vaxjo +1.5

54%fair 1.85

Total goals

Under 5.5

56%fair 1.79

Both teams to score

Yes

82%fair 1.22

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

V. LodinFAR · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7732%3.13
A. MattssonFAR · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3222%4.54
R. ZohornaFAR · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4621%4.83
P. AslundFAR · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4121%4.84
J. NygardFAR · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3321%4.86
O. NadeauVAX · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6220%5.08
J. PerssonVAX · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5118%5.68
B. CooperVAX · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4215%6.66
K. HenrikssonVAX · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3112%8.49
D. RasmussenVAX · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2311%9.18

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Farjestad vs Vaxjo?

Farjestad are the pick to beat Vaxjo at 71%, overtime and shootout included, with a projected 3–2 final.

Farjestad come into this game on a perfect run of form, having won 5 of their last 5 while scoring 4.2 and allowing 1.2 goals a game over that stretch. Vaxjo have managed 2 wins in their last 5, scoring 1.6 and allowing 2.4 goals a game. The gap between those two records is wide, and it lines up with the table, where Farjestad sit 1st and Vaxjo sit 11th. That combination of recent results and standings position makes Farjestad the clear side to back.

The ratings confirm what the form and the table suggest. Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Farjestad rate +0.98 and Vaxjo −0.15 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 1.13 goals to Farjestad. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league, which only widens the gap further. Vaxjo's case rests on the fact that about 21% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Farjestad win it in regulation only 59% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 71%.

The market is not fighting the model here. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, it prices Farjestad at 69% on the moneyline across 7 bookmakers, close to our 71%. That agreement between the numbers and the prices means the pick is not built on a disagreement with the market. Our predictions have Farjestad as the winner, with the projected score of 3–2 reflecting how tight the game could stay.

The projected 3–2 final puts the game just under the 5.5 goal line, and the under lands 56% of the time against a projected 5.4 goals. On the puck line, Farjestad −1.5 comes in 46% of the time on our numbers, so a one-goal margin is the more likely shape of a Farjestad win. The 71% moneyline probability, with 59% in regulation, leaves room for overtime and the shootout to decide it.

Farjestad to win, overtime and shootout included, at 71%, with a projected score of 3–2.