SHL

HV 71 vs Frölunda prediction

HV 713–5–3 · Home Frölunda9–2–0 · Away04:00 PM UTCOct 24

44%win chance incl. overtime56%

Our pick

56%FRÖ56%FRÖ

Frölunda to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.79 · projected 2–3

Frölunda are the pick on the road against HV 71 with a 56% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

HVHV 71 in 60'

33%

Tied → OTTied → OT

24%

FRÖFrölunda in 60'

43%

Game flow

HV 2.6 · FRÖ 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.8

P2 · 1.1–1.1

P3 · 0.8–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Frölunda56%1.79
Regulation result (60 minutes)Frölunda43%2.31
Puck lineHV 71 +1.570%1.43
Total goalsUnder 5.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes85%1.17

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Frölunda

56%fair 1.79

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Frölunda

43%fair 2.31

Puck line

HV 71 +1.5

70%fair 1.43

Total goals

Under 5.5

55%fair 1.81

Both teams to score

Yes

85%fair 1.17

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. MysakHV · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7431%3.27
J. AngHV · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4222%4.55
N. PasicHV · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4220%4.90
J. KloosHV · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3320%4.91
B. MeijerFRÖ · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3118%5.56
G. ClarkeFRÖ · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4118%5.70
P. RegendaHV · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3417%5.83
M. WestergardFRÖ · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3317%5.91
M. FribergFRÖ · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3316%6.10
S. FagemoFRÖ · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3316%6.22

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits: S. Fagemo: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Who will win HV 71 vs Frölunda?

Frölunda are the pick on the road against HV 71 with a 56% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Frölunda carry the stronger case into this one, and the numbers say so on several levels. They have won 3 of their last 5 while scoring 3.0 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch, whereas HV 71 have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 3.2. That gap in recent form lines up with the table, where Frölunda sit 2nd and HV 71 sit 13th.

Once the schedule is accounted for, the ratings point the same way. Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, HV 71 rate −0.25 and Frölunda +0.25 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.51 goals to Frölunda. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league, so HV 71 claw back most of that edge but not all of it, which is why the model still leans to the visitor rather than treating home advantage as decisive.

The model's regulation split shows how narrow the lean is: Frölunda get 43% to win inside 60 minutes, and a tie after three periods comes up 24%, sending the game to overtime and, if needed, a shootout. The betting market reads the game much the same way, pricing Frölunda at 57% on the moneyline across 7 bookmakers once the margin is removed. With a 56% chance on our side, this is close to a coin flip, so the lean deserves care rather than conviction.

The projected 3–2 score implies a one-goal margin, which frames both lines. Frölunda −1.5 on the puck line comes in 30% of the time on our numbers, so covering the extra goal is the less likely outcome. The projected total of 5.6 goals sits just above the 5.5 line, yet the under 5.5 goals lands 55% against that projection, a reminder that the two figures are close enough to leave the total genuinely tight.

Frölunda to win, overtime and shootout included (56%), with a projected score of 3–2.