SHL

Frölunda vs Rögle prediction

Frölunda9–2–0 · Home Rögle5–5–0 · Away07:00 PMOct 27

59%win chance incl. overtime41%

Our pick

59%FRÖ59%FRÖ

Frölunda to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.68 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Frölunda 59% favourites at home against Rögle, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

FRÖFrölunda in 60'

48%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

RÖGRögle in 60'

31%

Game flow

FRÖ 2.7 · RÖG 2.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–0.4

P2 · 0.9–1.1

P3 · 1.2–0.7

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Frölunda59%1.68
Regulation result (60 minutes)Frölunda48%2.06
Puck lineRögle +1.569%1.45
Total goalsOver 4.562%1.62
Both teams to scoreYes84%1.20

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Frölunda

59%fair 1.68

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Frölunda

48%fair 2.06

Puck line

Rögle +1.5

69%fair 1.45

Total goals

Over 4.5

62%fair 1.62

Both teams to score

Yes

84%fair 1.20

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

L. HorkyRÖG · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6325%3.98
D. EverbergRÖG · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4421%4.73
B. MeijerFRÖ · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3118%5.57
G. ClarkeFRÖ · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4117%5.72
M. WestergardFRÖ · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3317%5.93
M. FribergFRÖ · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3316%6.12
S. FagemoFRÖ · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3316%6.24
J. KellmanRÖG · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3316%6.37
A. SundsvikRÖG · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2213%7.99
F. JohanssonRÖG · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2112%8.06

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits: S. Fagemo: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Who will win Frölunda vs Rögle?

Our model makes Frölunda 59% favourites at home against Rögle, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Frölunda have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.0 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch. Rögle have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Frölunda sit 2nd, while Rögle sit 6th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Frölunda rate +0.25 and Rögle +0.10 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.15 goals to Frölunda. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Frölunda 48% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 21%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Frölunda 0, Rögle 1); the latest finished Rögle 4–1 Frölunda on 2026-10-22.

Our own lines for this game: Frölunda −1.5 on the puck line (31%) and 4.5 total goals, with the over at 62% (5.1 projected).

Frölunda to win, overtime and shootout included (59%). Projected score: 3–2.