Slovak Extraliga

Dukla Trenčín vs Liptovský Mikuláš prediction

Dukla Trenčín6–5–1 · Home Liptovský Mikuláš7–5–1 · Away03:30 PMOct 25

58%win chance incl. overtime42%

Our pick

58%DUK58%DUK

Dukla Trenčín to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.73 · projected 3–2

Dukla Trenčín are the pick to win at home against Liptovský Mikuláš, with a 58% probability and a projected score of 3–2.

After 60 minutes

DUKDukla Trenčín in 60'

48%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

LIPLiptovský Mikuláš in 60'

33%

Game flow

DUK 3.1 · LIP 2.6 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.9

P2 · 1.3–0.7

P3 · 1.0–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Dukla Trenčín58%1.73
Regulation result (60 minutes)Dukla Trenčín48%2.08
Puck lineLiptovský Mikuláš +1.568%1.47
Total goalsOver 5.550%1.99
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.13

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Dukla Trenčín

58%fair 1.73

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Dukla Trenčín

48%fair 2.08

Puck line

Liptovský Mikuláš +1.5

68%fair 1.47

Total goals

Over 5.5

50%fair 1.99

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.13

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

T. BarronDUK · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7334%2.90
J. DescheneauDUK · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6631%3.24
M. VojtechLIP · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6728%3.55
B. CoeLIP · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5623%4.35
T. LindenDUK · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4423%4.42
D. LakatosDUK · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3521%4.81
J. JaworskiLIP · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5121%4.87
M. FerkodicLIP · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2215%6.54
J. SiskaDUK · 2 G in 12 GP · 12 GP2215%6.55
S. AcolatseLIP · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3015%6.73

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Dukla Trenčín vs Liptovský Mikuláš?

Dukla Trenčín are the pick to win at home against Liptovský Mikuláš, with a 58% probability and a projected score of 3–2.

Dukla Trenčín and Liptovský Mikuláš arrive in near-identical form: each has won 2 of their last 5, and both have leaked goals at a similar rate, with Dukla Trenčín scoring 2.8 and allowing 3.0 per game while Liptovský Mikuláš have scored 2.4 and conceded 3.2. The table is just as tight, with Liptovský Mikuláš sitting 6th and Dukla Trenčín 7th, so this is a matchup between sides separated by a single place. The small gaps in the recent numbers are the kind that home ice can tilt.

The ratings offer a clearer read. Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Dukla Trenčín rate −0.03 and Liptovský Mikuláš −0.04 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.02 goals to Dukla Trenčín. That margin is thin, but home ice is worth about 0.46 goals a game in this league, which is where the bulk of the home side's advantage comes from. It explains why the model leans toward Dukla Trenčín without making them a heavy favourite.

The head-to-head record is short but favours the home team: the teams have met 1 time recently, with Dukla Trenčín winning that one, the latest finishing Liptovský Mikuláš 3–4 Dukla Trenčín on 2026-09-19. About 19% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, so Dukla Trenčín win in regulation only 48% of the time on our numbers, with overtime and the shootout making up the rest of the 58%. Liptovský Mikuláš's case rests on how little separates the two sides in form and rating, and on the chance that this one goes past regulation.

The market's view of the winner is modest rather than emphatic. Dukla Trenčín's 58% includes overtime and the shootout, and the projected score of 3–2 keeps the game close on paper. Liptovský Mikuláš are not outclassed in any of the inputs, but the combination of home ice and the slight ratings edge gives Dukla Trenčín the nod.

The projected score of 3–2 puts the game right on our 5.5 total goals line, with the over at 50% and 5.9 projected, so the total is close to a coin flip. On the puck line, Dukla Trenčín −1.5 is priced at 32%, which fits a one-goal projection: the model expects the home side to win, but not by two. The spread and the total both reflect a tight game rather than a comfortable home win.

Dukla Trenčín to win, overtime and shootout included, at 58%, with a projected score of 3–2.